Friday, July 10, 2015

New Approaches to Study Historical Evolution of Mortality (with implications for forecasting)


We are pleased to share with you our new published book chapter on mortality, aging and longevity studies.

Here is the full reference to our chapter for future possible citations:

New Approaches to Study Historical Evolution of Mortality (with implications for forecasting)
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A.
In: C.H.Skiadas (Ed). Theoretical and Applied Issues in Statistics and Demography. 2014, ISAST,  pp. 195 - 208.
ISBN-10: 6188125774; ISBN-13: 978-6188125773. 350 pages

Full text is available at:

Feel free to contact us for complimentary PDF file of this book chapter, if you have any problems using the provided link.

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

Kind regards,

-- Leonid and Natalia

-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago

P.S.: Abstract

Increasing  numbers  of people surviving  to  advanced  ages  pose serious challenge to government pension systems and to most developed societies.  Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group.  

In this paper we present some new approaches to mortality and population projections at older ages.  We apply modified method of mortality shifting to the data of Sweden and make mortality projections up to year 2050.  Specifically, we identify the best historic time interval for identifying the rate of mortality decline to use in mortality extrapolation.  In the case of Sweden, the best historic interval is 1980 through 2008 years for both men and women.  For men, the rate of mortality decline is almost twice as high as this rate for women. 

Using assumptions about log-linear decline of mortality over time and the exponential increase of mortality with age we conducted mortality projections for Swedish population over the next 50 years.  According to these projections, life expectancy at age 25 will increase from 54.07 years in 2005 to 62.71 years in 2050 for men and from 58.20 years to 63.50 years for women.  

These advances in life expectancy will not result in the growth of native population and it is expected that the native population of Sweden starts to decline after 2036 (assuming the birth rate remains unchanged)


Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 12.30
prada handbags, tory burch outlet, louis vuitton, polo ralph lauren outlet, louboutin outlet, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton, louis vuitton outlet, longchamp outlet, replica watches, christian louboutin outlet, louboutin shoes, jordan shoes, longchamp outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, replica watches, michael kors outlet, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton, michael kors outlet, nike free, michael kors outlet, burberry, longchamp, cheap oakley sunglasses, gucci outlet, ugg boots, michael kors outlet, michael kors, ugg boots, oakley sunglasses, ray ban sunglasses, nike air max, ugg boots, uggs on sale, tiffany and co, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, prada outlet, tiffany jewelry, burberry outlet online, oakley sunglasses, ugg boots, nike air max, nike outlet, louboutin, chanel handbags, oakley sunglasses

6:53 PM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

north face, nike roshe, vans pas cher, replica handbags, air force, timberland, lululemon, sac longchamp, ralph lauren pas cher, vanessa bruno, hollister pas cher, true religion jeans, air jordan pas cher, true religion jeans, nike huarache, hermes, true religion outlet, hollister, michael kors, nike air max, michael kors, nike blazer, michael kors, ralph lauren uk, longchamp pas cher, hogan, lacoste pas cher, true religion jeans, nike trainers, mulberry, michael kors, nike free, oakley pas cher, louboutin pas cher, longchamp, north face, nike roshe run, coach outlet, new balance pas cher, ray ban uk, ray ban pas cher, abercrombie and fitch, tn pas cher, nike air max, sac guess, nike air max, air max, burberry, converse pas cher, nike free run uk, coach purses

6:55 PM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

louboutin, reebok shoes, s5 cases, valentino shoes, iphone 5s cases, herve leger, gucci, beats by dre, ralph lauren, instyler, vans shoes, new balance, wedding dresses, north face outlet, nike roshe, hollister, nike air max, mac cosmetics, ray ban, abercrombie and fitch, ferragamo shoes, nike air max, p90x workout, jimmy choo shoes, insanity workout, ghd, lululemon, mont blanc, converse, asics running shoes, nfl jerseys, iphone 6s cases, birkin bag, bottega veneta, iphone 6 plus cases, baseball bats, vans, soccer shoes, north face outlet, iphone 6 cases, celine handbags, hollister, soccer jerseys, oakley, iphone cases, giuseppe zanotti, chi flat iron, timberland boots, mcm handbags, ipad cases, babyliss, iphone 6s plus cases

6:57 PM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

links of london, moncler, ugg pas cher, sac louis vuitton pas cher, moncler, louis vuitton, bottes ugg, canada goose, moncler, pandora charms, marc jacobs, canada goose, supra shoes, karen millen, canada goose outlet, barbour, doke gabbana outlet, montre pas cher, canada goose, pandora jewelry, hollister, pandora charms, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, canada goose uk, louis vuitton, moncler, coach outlet, pandora jewelry, doudoune canada goose, juicy couture outlet, thomas sabo, ugg boots uk, barbour jackets, louis vuitton, moncler, toms shoes, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, replica watches, swarovski, moncler outlet, canada goose, swarovski crystal, lancel, moncler, wedding dresses, juicy couture outlet, louis vuitton, canada goose outlet, moncler, converse outlet
ninest123 12.30

6:59 PM  
Blogger Zheng junxai5 said...

cheap toms
timberland boots
oakley outlet
beats by dre outlet
jordan retro 13
air jordan shoes
lebron james shoes 13
true religion outlet
nike running shoes for men
north face jackets
tiffany and co jewelry
longchamp outlet
gucci outlet online
louis vuitton bags
michael kors outlet
louis vuitton purses
ray ban outlet
nike store uk
coach factory outlet online
coach outlet
true religion outlet
kd 8
michael kors handbags
tiffany and co
cheap jordans
rolex watches
cheap jordan shoes
tods sale
michael kors outlet
nfl jerseys
coach factory outlet online
adidas superstar
michael kors outlet
adidas originals
oakley outlet
coach outlet store
cheap oakleys
cheap air jordans
coach outlet
coach outlet

2:06 AM  
Blogger Zheng junxai5 said...

coach outlet
nike roshe run
cheap rolex watches
ray ban sunglasses outlet
true religion jeans
mont blanc pen
cheap basketball shoes
ralph lauren
coach outlet store online
ray bans
nike air max 90
michael kors outlet clearance
ralph lauren
michael kors outlet clearance
pandora charms
adidas running shoes
michael kors outlet clearance
true religion outlet online
nike free 5.0
ralph lauren outlet
ray ban outlet
beats by dr dre
fitflop shoes
coach factory outlet
air max
kate spade handbags
kobe shoes 11
louis vuitton purses
retro 11
true religion sale
louboutin shoes
jordan shoes
air jordan homme
oakley sunglasses
ralph lauren outlet
nike sb dunks
gucci outlet
louis vuitton handbags

2:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Writing a history dissertation paper is a complex and daunting task. Students of history shy away from writing history dissertations due to complexities in requirements and rules of writing a professional history dissertation. Dissertation writing on history topics can be an enjoyable exercise if only students paid quality attention when in class or researching. Most tutors of history have the tendency of scrutinizing custom history dissertations for such elementary mistakes as grammatical errors and dissertation structures. When faced with such an assignments, most students opt to search for professional dissertation writers

2:43 AM  
Anonymous Obat Untuk Mengatasi ISPA said...

Very nice article, thanks for sharing the information

Obat Tradisional Gangguan Jantung
Obat Penyakit Kencing Manis
Obat Tumor Miom
Obat Osteoarthritis Tradisional
Obat TBC Anak
Obat Encok Pinggang

2:54 AM  
Blogger Shinta agustyn said...

Thank has been sharing this information
sapnudin herbal
obat sendawa
obat bruntusan

10:50 PM  
Blogger Monuth Haurs said...

I can only express a word of thanks. Because with the content on this blog I can add knowledge I, thank has been sharing this information. Do not forget to visit our website to share information and knowledge about health. |
obat sesak nafas |
agen qnc jelly gamat semarang |
obat encok asam urat alami |
agen qnc jelly gamat yogyakarta |

9:47 PM  
Blogger eric yao said...

Coach Factory Coach Factory Outlet Coach Outlet Online Fila Outlet Balenciaga Shoes Cheap Kate Spade Handbag Kate Spade Outlet Air Max Tn Plus Nike Air Max
Victoria Secret Outlet

12:36 AM  
Blogger Farhan Tanvir- Graphics Experts Ltd said...

car photo editing

2:52 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home