Friday, July 10, 2015

New Approaches to Study Historical Evolution of Mortality (with implications for forecasting)

Greetings,

We are pleased to share with you our new published book chapter on mortality, aging and longevity studies.

Here is the full reference to our chapter for future possible citations:


New Approaches to Study Historical Evolution of Mortality (with implications for forecasting)
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A.
In: C.H.Skiadas (Ed). Theoretical and Applied Issues in Statistics and Demography. 2014, ISAST,  pp. 195 - 208.
ISBN-10: 6188125774; ISBN-13: 978-6188125773. 350 pages
http://www.everytext.com/gp/show_book.php?isbn=9786188125773

Full text is available at:

http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Gavrilova-BookChapter-2014.pdf


Feel free to contact us for complimentary PDF file of this book chapter, if you have any problems using the provided link.

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

Kind regards,

-- Leonid and Natalia

-------------------------------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/

P.S.: Abstract

Increasing  numbers  of people surviving  to  advanced  ages  pose serious challenge to government pension systems and to most developed societies.  Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group.  


In this paper we present some new approaches to mortality and population projections at older ages.  We apply modified method of mortality shifting to the data of Sweden and make mortality projections up to year 2050.  Specifically, we identify the best historic time interval for identifying the rate of mortality decline to use in mortality extrapolation.  In the case of Sweden, the best historic interval is 1980 through 2008 years for both men and women.  For men, the rate of mortality decline is almost twice as high as this rate for women. 

Using assumptions about log-linear decline of mortality over time and the exponential increase of mortality with age we conducted mortality projections for Swedish population over the next 50 years.  According to these projections, life expectancy at age 25 will increase from 54.07 years in 2005 to 62.71 years in 2050 for men and from 58.20 years to 63.50 years for women.  


These advances in life expectancy will not result in the growth of native population and it is expected that the native population of Sweden starts to decline after 2036 (assuming the birth rate remains unchanged)



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