We are pleased to share with you our new published book chapter on mortality, aging and
Here is the full reference to our chapter for future possible
New Approaches to Study Historical Evolution of Mortality (with implications for forecasting)
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A.
In: C.H.Skiadas (Ed). Theoretical and Applied Issues in Statistics and Demography
. 2014, ISAST, pp. 195 - 208.
ISBN-10: 6188125774; ISBN-13: 978-6188125773. 350 pages
Full text is available at:
Feel free to contact us for complimentary PDF file of this
book chapter, if you have any problems using the provided link.
Comments and suggestions are most welcome!
-- Leonid and Natalia
-- Leonid Gavrilov
, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova
, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Increasing numbers of people surviving to advanced ages pose
serious challenge to government pension systems and to most developed
societies. Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages
are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population
size of the oldest old age group.
In this paper we present some new approaches to mortality and population
projections at older ages. We apply modified method of mortality
shifting to the data of Sweden and make mortality projections up to year
2050. Specifically, we identify the best historic time interval for
identifying the rate of mortality decline to use in mortality
extrapolation. In the case of Sweden, the best historic interval is
1980 through 2008 years for both men and women. For men, the rate of
mortality decline is almost twice as high as this rate for women.
Using assumptions about log-linear decline of mortality over time and
the exponential increase of mortality with age we conducted mortality
projections for Swedish population over the next 50 years. According to
these projections, life expectancy at age 25 will increase from 54.07
years in 2005 to 62.71 years in 2050 for men and from 58.20 years to
63.50 years for women.
These advances in life expectancy will not
result in the growth of native population and it is expected that the
native population of Sweden starts to decline after 2036 (assuming the
birth rate remains unchanged)