International Symposium on Survival to Advanced Ages: "Living to 100"

Greetings,

I am pleased to share with you the program of the upcoming scientific International Symposium on Survival to Advanced Ages: "Living to 100".

This International Symposium brings together longevity experts from USA, Canada, United Kingdom, India, Mexico, Netherlands, Taiwan, Hong Kong and other countries.

The Symposium is organized by the Society of Actuaries and will take place in Florida on January 7-9, 2008 at the following address:

Hilton in the Walt Disney World Resort
1751 Hotel Plaza Boulevard
Lake Buena Vista
Florida 32830
USA

Hope to see you there soon: our two presentations there will take place on Tuesday, January 8 (see Program below):

Symposium Program

Day 1, Monday, January 7

8:00 a.m.–10:00 a.m.
Opening Remarks and Keynote Speaker
Symposium Co–Chairperson: Robert J. Johansen
SOA President: Bruce D. Schobel

Opening Keynote Presentation:

Aging Research–Past, Present, and Future
Cynthia Kenyon, American Cancer Society Professor and Director of Hillblom Center for the Biology of Aging, University of California, San Francisco, California

10:15 a.m.–12:00 p.m.
General Session 1, Implications of Longer Life Spans: What Does This All Mean to Us?

Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Timothy F. Harris, Principal, Milliman Inc., St. Louis, Missouri;
Dawn E. Helwig, Principal, Milliman Inc.,Chicago, Illinois
Valerie A. Paganelli, Senior Consulting Actuary, Paganelli Consulting, Seattle, Washington
David K. Sandberg, VP & Corporate Actuary, Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Steven G. Vernon, President, Rest–of–Life Communications, Oxnard, California

1:50 p.m.–3:35 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 1

1A, Distinguishing Health Status For Advanced Ages

Moderator:
Craig M. Baldwin, MAAA Vice President Transamerica Reinsurance Charlotte, North Carolina

Panelists:
Faye S. Albert, MAAA President Albert Associates Miami, Florida
Thomas Ashley, FACP Vice President and Chief Medical Director Gen Re LifeHealth Stamford, Connecticut
Robert Gleeson, FACP Vice President & Medical Director Northwestern Mutual Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Stephen K. Holland, Senior Vice President & Medical Director Long–Term Care Group, Inc. Natick, Massachusetts

1B, Perspectives on a Changing Global Retirement Paradigm

Discussant:
J. Bruce MacDonald, Consulting Actuary, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Papers:

Living to 100 and Beyond in Canada with Dignity
Doug Andrews, PhD Candidate, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Micro Pension Plan: Indian Perspective
Prakash Bhattacharya, Bengal College of Engineering and Technology, Durgapur, West Bengal, India

Retirement and Retirement Ages in Canada Revisited
Brian L. Burnell, Burnell Actuarial Consulting, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada


3:50 p.m.–5:35 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 2

2A, Demographic Implications of Aging Populations Internationally

Discussant:
John W. Paddon, Consulting Actuary, Convent Station, New Jersey

Papers:

Challenges on Improved Life Spans in India–The Actuarial Implications
N. V. Subramanyan, Manager–Business Analysis, HSBC Software Development India, Kalyaninagar, Pune, India

Economic Sustainability of Retirement Pensions in Mexico: Is There a Link with the Mexican-Origin Population in the U.S.?
Roberto Ham–Chande, Researcher, Department of Population Studies, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Tijuana, Mexico

Income Inequality and Life Expectancy: New Evidence
Robert L. Brown, Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Steven G. Prus, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

2B, Emerging Definitions of Retirement

Moderator:
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Doug Andrews, PhD Candidate, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Steven Haberman, Deputy Dean, Cass Business School, City University, London, England
Valerie A. Paganelli, Senior Consulting Actuary, Paganelli Consulting, Seattle, Washington
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois
Steven G. Vernon, President, Rest–of–Life Communications, Oxnard, California

=========================================

Day 2, Tuesday, January 8

8:00 a.m.–9:45 a.m.
General Session 2, Social Insurance Perspectives and Implications

Moderator and Discussant:
Sam Gutterman, Director and Consulting Actuary, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Adrian P. Gallop, Government Actuary's Department, London, England
Jean-Claude Menard, Chief Actuary, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary, Long Range, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

10:00 a.m.–11:45 a.m.
Concurrent Sessions 3

3A, Social Insurance Follow–up: Methodologies and Implications

Moderator:
J. Bruce MacDonald, Consulting Actuary, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Panelists:
Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland
Danita L. Pattemore, Actuarial Officer, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Alvin K. Winters, Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

3B, Quality of Life of Elderly

Discussant:
Deborah Briceland–Betts, National Director Women's Programs, AARP Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Papers:
Living to 100–A Woman's Issue
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Evaluation of Approaches to Reducing Women's Longevity Risk
Beverly J. Orth, Principal, Mercer Human Resource Consulting, Portland, Oregon

Estimates of the Incidence, Prevalence, Duration, Intensity, and Cost of Chronic Disability among the U.S. Elderly
Eric Stallard, Research Professor, Department of Sociology and Associate Director, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

11:55 p.m.–1:40 p.m.
Luncheon with Speaker

Luncheon Presentation: The MacArthur Initiative on an Aging Society: Population Forecasts for the U.S.
S. Jay Olshansky, Professor, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

1:50 p.m.–3:15 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 4

4A, New Models of Advanced Age Mortality
Discussant:
Thomas P. Edwalds, Assistant Vice President, Mortality Research, Munich American Reassurance Co, Chicago, Illinois

Papers:
Inference for Logistic–type Models for the Force of Mortality
Louis G. Doray, Professor, Department of Math and Statistics, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Predictive Modeling for Advanced Age Mortality
Lijia Guo, Principal Financial Engineer/Actuary, Algorithmics Inc., Newton, Massachusetts


4B, Mortality Measurement and Prediction

Discussant:
Elizabeth Arias, Health Scientist, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, Maryland

Papers:
Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois Natalia S. Gavrilova, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity, with Applications to U.S. Data and Some Implications for U.S. Public Programs
Jacob S. Siegel, Demographic Consultant, J. Stuart Siegel Demographic Services, North Bethesda, Maryland

3:30 p.m.–4:55 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 5

5A, Longevity Risk Pricing

Discussant:
Michael L. Kaster, Senior Consultant, Watson Wyatt Insurance & Financial Services, Inc., Berwyn, Pennsylvania

Papers:
Living to 100: Survival to Advanced Ages: Insurance Industry Implication on Retirement Planning and the Secondary Market in Insurance
Jay Vadiveloo, Professor and Director of the Deloitte–University of Connecticut Actuarial Center and Senior Manager, Deloitte Consulting LLP, Hartford, Connecticut
Peng Zhou, Investment Officer, Sun Life Financial, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts,
Charles Vinsonhaler, Professor, Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut
Sudath Ranasinghe, PhD Candidate, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut

Longevity Risk Pricing
Jiajia Cui, PhD Candidate, Tilburg University, Tilburg, the Netherlands


5B, Prediction from Data

Discussant:
Joseph Lu, Senior Actuary, Synesis Life, London, England

Papers:
Data Validation and Measurement of Cohort Mortality among Centenarians in Quebec (Canada) According to Place of Birth and Ethnic Origin
Melissa Beaudry–Godin, PhD Candidate, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Robert Bourbeau, Professor and Chairperson, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Bertrand Desjardins, Researcher, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Physical and Socio-Economic Characteristics at Young Age as Predictors of Survival to 100. A study of a new historical data resource (the US WWI draft cards)
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Research Associate of the Center Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

==========================================

Day 3, Wednesday, January 9

8:00 a.m.–9:15 a.m.
General Session 3, Biological Perspectives on Aging

Discussant:
Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

Papers:
Entropy Explains Aging, Genetic Determinism Explains Longevity, and Undefined Terminology Explains Misunderstanding Both
Leonard Hayflick, Professor of Anatomy, University of California, San Francisco, School of Medicine, San Francisco, California

9:30 a.m.–11:15 a.m.
Concurrent Sessions 6

6A, Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Discussant:
W. Ward Kingkade, Statistician/Demographer, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D.C.

Papers:
On Simulation-Based Approaches to Risk Measurement in Mortality with Specific Reference to Binomial Lee-Carter Modeling
Steven Haberman, Professor of Actuarial Science and Deputy Dean, Cass Business School, City University, London, England
Arthur Renshaw, Cass Business School, City University, London, England

A Study of the Lee–Carter Model with a Jump
Jack C. Yue, Professor, Department of Statistics, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan
Sharon S. Yang, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Mathematics, College of Business, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan
Hong–Chih Huang, Assistant Professor, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan

Testing Deterministic Versus Stochastic Trends in the Lee–Carter Mortality Indexes and Its Implications for Projecting Mortality Improvements at Advanced Ages
Wai–Sum Chan, Professor, Department of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China
Siu–Hang Li, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Siu–Hung Cheung, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China


6B, Health Status and Its Impact on Mortality

Discussant:
S. Jay Olshansky, Professor, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

Papers:
Health Expectancy
Faye S. Albert, President, Albert Associates, Miami, Florida
James C. Brooks, Actuarial Consultant, John M Bragg & Associates Inc., Marietta, Georgia
John M. Bragg, Chairman, John M Bragg & Associates Inc., Atlanta, Georgia

Human Behaviour: An Impediment toward Future Mortality Improvement
Sam Gutterman, Director & Consulting Actuary, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Chicago, Illinois

Health, Wealth and Wisdom–Living Long, Living Well
Michael J. Cowell, Yarmouth, Maine


11:25 a.m.–11:45 a.m.
Closing Remarks

Symposium Co–Chairperson: Robert J. Johansen
Symposium Co–Chairperson: Timothy F. Harris,
Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia Member: Sam Gutterman,

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