'Longevity' Lecture at Duke university

Greetings,

We wonder whether some readers of  this blog work at Duke university or nearby?   We will be giving invited lecture there:

http://ipl.econ.duke.edu/seminars/node/3675

Would be glad to meet in person with those who are interested.  Feel free to e-mail us, if you like to talk to us after presentation.

Kind regards,

-- Leonid and Natalia

-------------------------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

==========================

Duke University Population Research Institute (DuPRI) Seminar, Thursday, September 27, 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM,  111 Social Sciences Building

New Estimates of Mortality Trajectories at Extreme Old Ages

Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova,  Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago

Abstract

A growing number of persons living beyond age 85 underscore the need for accurate measurement and modeling of mortality at advanced ages. This is also very important issue for making correct forecasts of population aging and related demands for medical services and social support.  Earlier studies indicate that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of mortality deceleration with slower rate of growth. This study challenges earlier conclusions with new datasets and data analysis.

In this study we used U.S. cohort survival data for people born in the same calendar year.  For this purpose we obtained data from the U.S. Social Security Administration Death Master File to estimate hazard rates for 15 single-year extinct birth cohorts born in 1881-1895.   We found that mortality deceleration is far less pronounced when it is measured for shorter monthly age intervals rather than for traditional annual intervals.  To find out why does it happen we have made a simulation study and found that traditional measures of hazard rate (like the Nelson-Aalen hazard rate estimate) underestimate mortality force at extreme old ages (underestimation bias) when death rates are exceptionally high. 

We also found that mortality deceleration is far less pronounced when datasets with higher data quality (age reporting) are analyzed.  Mortality modeling found that the Gompertz model demonstrates better goodness-of-fit in age interval 88-106 years compared to logistic (Kannisto) model when used for data of good quality.  Study of mortality among other mammalian species (mice and rats) also found no mortality deceleration at advanced ages. It appears that the earlier reports of mortality deceleration for ages below 106 years may be a result of age exaggeration and the use of biased estimates of hazard rate.  This study was supported in part by the National Institute on Aging (R01 AG028620 grant). 

For more information on this study see our recent peer-reviewed article:

Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Mortality measurement at advanced ages: A study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File. North American Actuarial Journal, 2011, 15(3): 432-447.
Full text available at:
http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Mortality-NAAJ-2011.pdf
and
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3354762/

You can see media coverage and discussion of our new study by clicking on these titles:  Chicago Sun-Times,  Chronicle of Higher Education,  Daily Herald,  Discovery News,  Reuters,  Scripps Howard News,  U.S. News & World Report,  United Press International (UPI),  Wall Street Journal, and  Wall Street Journal Blog, or see the summary of media coverage here.

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Press Release: Mortality Grossly Underestimated at Older Ages, New Study Finds

Dear Friend and Colleagues,

Feel free to disseminate widely our News Release (please see below) on important topic of human mortality and longevity, among reporters and journalists you may know, for their coverage of new research findings.

Full text of the original peer-reviewed article is available upon your request.

Thank you, and looking forward to hear from you,

Kind regards,


-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

=================================

Press Release

Longevity Chances Grossly Overestimated, New Study Finds


The chances to reach extreme old age are much lower than previously thought, new research shows

Research just published by a team of demographers at the social science research organization NORC at the University of Chicago contradicts a long-held belief that the mortality rate of Americans flattens out above age 80.

It also explains why there are only half as many people in the U.S. age 100 and above than the Census Bureau predicted there would be as recently as six years ago.

The research is based on a new way of accurately measuring mortality of Americans who are 80 years of age and older, an issue that has proven remarkably elusive in the past. The work will be significant in arriving at more accurate cost projections for programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which are based in part on mortality rates.

The research, done by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova, and published in the current edition of the North American Actuarial Journal, is based on highly accurate information about the date of birth and the date of death of more than nine million Americans born between 1875 and 1895. The data is publicly available in the Social Security Administration Death Master File (SSA DMF). “It is a remarkable resource that allowed us to build what is called an extinct birth cohort that corrects or explains a number of misunderstandings about the mortality rate of our oldest citizens,” said Leonid Gavrilov.

A stark example of the problem of estimating the number of people over 100 came recently when the U.S. Census Bureau revised sharply downward the number of living centenarians. Six years ago, the bureau predicted that by 2010 there would be 114,000 people age 100 or older. The actual number turned out to be 53,364. The projection was wrong by a factor of two.

The newly published paper, titled “Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File,” explains the discrepancy and is likely to make a difference in the way mortality projections for the very old are done in the future.

The key finding is straightforward—the rate of mortality growth with age of the oldest Americans is the same as that for those who are younger. The research reveals that mortality deceleration, the long-held belief that the mortality rate flattens out above age 80, does not take place.

Anne Zissu, chair of the Department of Business NYC College of Technology/CUNY, said the research provides “an essential tool” for developing models on seniors’ financial assets.

Zissu said the research “will alter our financial approach to this valuation of mortality/longevity risk. Demographers and financiers need to work on this issue together, and their models must adapt to each other.”

The mortality rate for people between the ages of 30 and 80 follows what is called the Gompertz Law, named for its founder, Benjamin Gompertz, who observed in 1825 that a person’s risk of death in a given year doubles every eight years of age. It is a phenomenon that holds up across nations and over time and is an important part of the foundation of actuarial science.

For approximately 70 years, demographers have believed that above age 80 the Gompertz Law did not hold and that mortality rates flattened out. The work done by the Gavrilovs, a husband-and-wife team, reveals that the Gompertz Law holds at least through age 106, and probably higher, but the researchers say mortality data for those older than 106 is unreliable.

The Gavrilovs say the extinct birth cohort of people born between 1875 and 1895, which they built using the Social Security Administration Death Master File, reveals beyond question that the mortality rate of people in that cohort aligns with the Gompertz Law.

“It amazes me that the Gompertz model fits so well nearly 200 years after he proposed it. I like the approach of using extinct cohorts methods on SSA DMF data by month and the use of male-female ratios to test the quality of the data at advanced ages," said Tom Edwalds, Assistant Vice President, Mortality Research, for the Munich American Reassurance Company.

Prior estimates of the number of centenarians in the United States were made in less direct ways that were subject to error. They depended, for example, on people self-reporting their age in the U.S. Census, which is less reliable than having actual birth and death data.

Gavrilov and Gavrilova work at the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging, one of the Academic Research Centers of NORC. The study is supported by the National Institute on Aging.

The Chicago Actuarial Association (CAA) has invited the authors to present their new findings at the CAA annual meeting in Chicago on March 13.

Full text of the original peer-reviewed published study is publicly available at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3269912/


About the Study Authors:

Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., is Principal Investigator of research project "Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity in the United States," awarded by 5-year grant from the National Institutes of Health, NIH. For more information, visit: http://www.norc.org/Experts/Pages/leonid-a-gavrilov.aspx . Contact e-mail: gavrilov(at)longevity-science.org

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., is a Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America, and the author of over a hundred scientific publications. For more information, visit: http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm


About NORC:

NORC at the University of Chicago is an independent research organization headquartered in downtown Chicago with additional offices on the University of Chicago's campus and in the D.C. Metro area. NORC also supports a nationwide field staff as well as international research operations. With clients throughout the world, NORC collaborates with government agencies, foundations, educational institutions, nonprofit organizations, and businesses to provide data and analysis that support informed decision making in key areas including health, education, economics, crime, justice, energy, security, and the environment. NORC’s 70 years of leadership and experience in data collection, analysis, and dissemination—coupled with deep subject matter expertise—provides the foundation for effective solutions.

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New Study on Human Aging, Mortality and Longevity

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

We are pleased to share with you the results of our new study, just published by a professional journal Demografie:

Ageing and Longevity:
Mortality Laws and Mortality Forecasts for Ageing Populations
Demografie, 2011, 53(2): 109-128.

Full text is available online at:
http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Demografie-2011.pdf

If you have any difficulty reading Czech, the English translation is available here:

http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Demografie-English-2011.pdf

Abstract:

The increase in the number of people surviving to an advanced age poses a serious challenge to the government pension systems of industrialised societies. Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improve forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group.

In this article the authors present some new approaches to mortality and population projections at older ages using Swedish period life table data. Using two simple assumptions about age- and time patterns of mortality change (log-linear decline of mortality over time and exponential growth of hazard rates with age up to very advanced ages), the authors made mortality projections for Swedish males and females for the next fifty years.

Keywords:

ageing population, mortality laws, Gompertz-Makeham law, background (component of) mortality, senescent (component of) mortality, mortality at advanced ages, mortality forecast

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

To read and post comments, click here.

Best wishes,

-- Leonid and Natalia


-------------------------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
Our books: http://longevity-science.org/Books.html


Home:
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Help Us Fund the Research on Extension of Healthy Lifespan, by clicking here:

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Our best papers on aging, mortality and longevity

Dear friends,

We are pleased to share with you our best (most cited) papers on aging, mortality and longevity studies. You can easily get the full text of each publication just by clicking on the titles below. Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

1.
Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The reliability theory of aging and longevity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2001, 213(4): 527-545.
Cited 211 times, Journal Impact Factor: 2.574

2.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Evolutionary theories of aging and longevity. TheScientificWorldJOURNAL, 2002, 2: 339-356.
Cited 74 times, Journal Impact Factor: 1.658

3.
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review, 2000, 19: 397-419.
Cited 68 times, Journal Impact Factor: 0.718

4.
Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A., Evdokushkina G.N., Semyonova, V.G., Gavrilova, A.L., Evdokushkina, N.N., Kushnareva, Yu.E., Kroutko, V.N., Andreyev, A.Yu. Evolution, mutations and human longevity. Human Biology, 1998, 70(4): 799-804.
Cited 51 times, Journal Impact Factor: 0.531

5.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Season of birth and human longevity. Journal of Anti-Aging Medicine (now Rejuvenation Research), 1999, 2(4): 365-366.
Cited 50 times, Journal Impact Factor: 4.138

6.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Parental age at conception and offspring longevity. Reviews in Clinical Gerontology, 1997, 7: 5-12.
Cited 42 times

7.
Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova, N.S., Kroutko, V.N., Evdokushkina, G.N., Semyonova, V.G., Gavrilova, A.L., Lapshin, E.V., Evdokushkina N.N., Kushnareva, Yu.E. Mutation load and human longevity. Mutation Research, 1997, 377(1): 61-62.
Cited 39 times, Journal Impact Factor: 3.556

8.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Biodemographic study of familial determinants of human longevity. Population, 2001, 13(1): 197-222.
Cited 29 times, Journal Impact Factor: 0.542

9.
De Grey, Aubrey D. N., Leonid Gavrilov, S. Jay Olshansky, L. Stephen Coles, Richard G. Cutler, Michael Fossel, and S. Mitchell Harman. Antiaging technology and pseudoscience. Letter. Science, 2002, 296: 656-656.
Cited 28 times, Journal Impact Factor: 29.747

10.
Carnes, B.A., Olshansky, S.J., Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S., Grahn, D. Human longevity: Nature vs. Nurture - fact or fiction. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 1999, 42(3): 422-441.
Cited 25 times, Journal Impact Factor: 1.084

11.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Is there a reproductive cost for human longevity? Journal of Anti-Aging Medicine (now Rejuvenation Research), 1999, 2(2): 121-123.
Cited 24 times, Journal Impact Factor: 4.138

12.
Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. When Fatherhood Should Stop? Letter. Science, 1997, 277(5322): 17-18.
Cited 21 times, Journal Impact Factor: 29.747

Total number of citations for 10 top articles: 616

Book:
The biology of life span: a quantitative approach
LA Gavrilov, NS Gavrilova - 1991 - Harwood Academic Publishers
Cited 323 times

Book in Russian:
Биология продолжительности жизни
ЛА Гаврилов, НС Гаврилова - 1991
Cited 40 times

Source:
http://scholar.google.com/


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International Conference 'Living to 100'

Dear Friends,

Recently we were invited to give two lectures at the International Conference 'Living to 100', as well as to be invited discussants there (for more information please click on the titles below):

"Living to 100" Society of Actuaries International Symposium
Orlando, Florida, January 5-7, 2011
Renaissance Hotel at SeaWorld

Concurrent Session "Mortality Compression," -- Discussion
Wednesday, January 5, 10:00 - 11:45am

Dr. Leonid Gavrilov -- Early-Life Predictors of Exceptional Longevity in the United States: Why Centenarians are Different from Their Shorter-Lived Siblings
Thursday, January 6, 10:00-11:45am

Dr. Natalia Gavrilova -- Mortality Measurement and Modeling Beyond Age 100
Friday, January 7, 8:00-9:45am

Here are some interesting evaluation results (excerpts based on participants feedback) for this conference distributed by the Organizing committee among the conference participants (over 200 experts from all over the world) :

"I particularly appreciated the fact that the speakers chosen reflected the broad range of opinions on mortality, aging and longevity. The only presentation which I was not satisfied with was that of Prof. Hayflick.

Despite being extremely accomplished in his own field, his views on the broader topic of longevity and mortality are his own personal and private views, and should be kept out of a public debate.

When choosing prominent figures from scientific backgrounds, the organizing committee might in future try to ensure that the presenters talk about topics they actually know about.

Sitting through a diatribe against longevity research from expressed by a grumpy old microbiologist was close to insufferable. "

Strong words indeed!

I wonder how common are such frank comments in evaluations you have ever seen?

You are welcome to comment by clicking here


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Two Scientific Presentations on Longevity & Mortality in Detroit, May 1-2

See also:
-- 'Books Forum' blog
-- 'Health Studies' blog


Dear All,

I am pleased to invite you to our two scientific presentations that will take place in Detroit on May 1 and 2.

Both scientific presentations will take place in Detroit Marriott at the Renaissance Center, Detroit, Michigan 48243 USA (Phone: 1-313-568-8000)

First presentation:

Friday, May 01, 2:30 PM
Room: Mackinac West

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages
by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova
at PAA Session 130: Methodological Issues in Health and Mortality

To see Power-Point Presentation of this lecture click here:

http://longevity-science.org/Mortality-PAA-2009.ppt

Second presentation:

Saturday, May 02, 11:30 AM
Room: Richard B

Midlife Predictors of Exceptional Longevity:
A Study of the U.S. WWI Draft Registration Cards
by Natalia S. Gavrilova and Leonid A. Gavrilov
at PAA Session 172: Early Life Conditions and Adult Health

To see Power-Point Presentation of this lecture click here:

http://longevity-science.org/Centenarians-PAA-2009.ppt

Looking forward to see you there!

Please feel free to post your comments and suggestions below by clicking here.

Key words:
Mortality Measurement, Advanced Ages, Predictors of Exceptional Longevity, Detroit, Scientific Presentations, PAA, Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova, ageing, aging, gerontology, longevity, centenarians


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Immunosenescence (Medical Intelligence Unit) -- New Book

See also:
-- 'Books Forum' blog
-- 'Health Studies' blog


Greetings,

Here is a new book for discussion:

Immunosenescence (Medical Intelligence Unit)
by Graham Pawelec (Hardcover - Jan 2008)

Book Description provided by the Springer Publisher:

Human immunosenescence contributes to morbidity and mortality in later life. The age-associated increasing incidence of cancer and cardiovascular disease plateaus at around 80 years of age in industrialised countries, but death due to infectious disease continues to increase up to 100 years of age and beyond. Understanding the reasons for age-associated alterations to protective immunity in the elderly would facilitate the development of interventions to reconstitute appropriate immune function, increase responsiveness to vaccination and extend healthspan.

The majority of the papers collected in this volume therefore address not only the mechanisms responsible for immune ageing in humans but consider what might be accomplished to redress the erosion of immune competence with age. The first problem facing the gerontologist investigating human ageing is their longevity: most studies are conducted in a cross-sectional manner, in which parameters of interest in elderly cohorts are compared to young controls. However, the ageing trajectories of people now 80 years old, born at the beginning of the 20th century, will have been very different in mostly unidentifiable ways from those born towards the end of that century. These differences include population genetics, nutrition, stress, disease, and of course, medical treatment, all of which make these two populations hardly comparable.

Key words:
New books, aging, ageing, longevity, gerontology, gerontological, geriatrics, geriatric, senescence, anti-aging, anti-ageing, rejuvenation, life-extension, immortality,Immunosenescence, Medical Intelligence Unit, Graham Pawelec, morbidity, mortality, immunity in the elderly, immune function, healthspan, immune competence


Do you have any comments on this new book?
Post them below by clicking here!

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International Symposium on Survival to Advanced Ages: "Living to 100"

Greetings,

I am pleased to share with you the program of the upcoming scientific International Symposium on Survival to Advanced Ages: "Living to 100".

This International Symposium brings together longevity experts from USA, Canada, United Kingdom, India, Mexico, Netherlands, Taiwan, Hong Kong and other countries.

The Symposium is organized by the Society of Actuaries and will take place in Florida on January 7-9, 2008 at the following address:

Hilton in the Walt Disney World Resort
1751 Hotel Plaza Boulevard
Lake Buena Vista
Florida 32830
USA

Hope to see you there soon: our two presentations there will take place on Tuesday, January 8 (see Program below):

Symposium Program

Day 1, Monday, January 7

8:00 a.m.–10:00 a.m.
Opening Remarks and Keynote Speaker
Symposium Co–Chairperson: Robert J. Johansen
SOA President: Bruce D. Schobel

Opening Keynote Presentation:

Aging Research–Past, Present, and Future
Cynthia Kenyon, American Cancer Society Professor and Director of Hillblom Center for the Biology of Aging, University of California, San Francisco, California

10:15 a.m.–12:00 p.m.
General Session 1, Implications of Longer Life Spans: What Does This All Mean to Us?

Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Timothy F. Harris, Principal, Milliman Inc., St. Louis, Missouri;
Dawn E. Helwig, Principal, Milliman Inc.,Chicago, Illinois
Valerie A. Paganelli, Senior Consulting Actuary, Paganelli Consulting, Seattle, Washington
David K. Sandberg, VP & Corporate Actuary, Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Steven G. Vernon, President, Rest–of–Life Communications, Oxnard, California

1:50 p.m.–3:35 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 1

1A, Distinguishing Health Status For Advanced Ages

Moderator:
Craig M. Baldwin, MAAA Vice President Transamerica Reinsurance Charlotte, North Carolina

Panelists:
Faye S. Albert, MAAA President Albert Associates Miami, Florida
Thomas Ashley, FACP Vice President and Chief Medical Director Gen Re LifeHealth Stamford, Connecticut
Robert Gleeson, FACP Vice President & Medical Director Northwestern Mutual Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Stephen K. Holland, Senior Vice President & Medical Director Long–Term Care Group, Inc. Natick, Massachusetts

1B, Perspectives on a Changing Global Retirement Paradigm

Discussant:
J. Bruce MacDonald, Consulting Actuary, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Papers:

Living to 100 and Beyond in Canada with Dignity
Doug Andrews, PhD Candidate, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Micro Pension Plan: Indian Perspective
Prakash Bhattacharya, Bengal College of Engineering and Technology, Durgapur, West Bengal, India

Retirement and Retirement Ages in Canada Revisited
Brian L. Burnell, Burnell Actuarial Consulting, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada


3:50 p.m.–5:35 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 2

2A, Demographic Implications of Aging Populations Internationally

Discussant:
John W. Paddon, Consulting Actuary, Convent Station, New Jersey

Papers:

Challenges on Improved Life Spans in India–The Actuarial Implications
N. V. Subramanyan, Manager–Business Analysis, HSBC Software Development India, Kalyaninagar, Pune, India

Economic Sustainability of Retirement Pensions in Mexico: Is There a Link with the Mexican-Origin Population in the U.S.?
Roberto Ham–Chande, Researcher, Department of Population Studies, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Tijuana, Mexico

Income Inequality and Life Expectancy: New Evidence
Robert L. Brown, Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Steven G. Prus, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

2B, Emerging Definitions of Retirement

Moderator:
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Doug Andrews, PhD Candidate, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Steven Haberman, Deputy Dean, Cass Business School, City University, London, England
Valerie A. Paganelli, Senior Consulting Actuary, Paganelli Consulting, Seattle, Washington
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois
Steven G. Vernon, President, Rest–of–Life Communications, Oxnard, California

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Day 2, Tuesday, January 8

8:00 a.m.–9:45 a.m.
General Session 2, Social Insurance Perspectives and Implications

Moderator and Discussant:
Sam Gutterman, Director and Consulting Actuary, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Chicago, Illinois

Panelists:
Adrian P. Gallop, Government Actuary's Department, London, England
Jean-Claude Menard, Chief Actuary, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary, Long Range, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

10:00 a.m.–11:45 a.m.
Concurrent Sessions 3

3A, Social Insurance Follow–up: Methodologies and Implications

Moderator:
J. Bruce MacDonald, Consulting Actuary, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Panelists:
Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland
Danita L. Pattemore, Actuarial Officer, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Alvin K. Winters, Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

3B, Quality of Life of Elderly

Discussant:
Deborah Briceland–Betts, National Director Women's Programs, AARP Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Papers:
Living to 100–A Woman's Issue
Anna M. Rappaport, Anna Rappaport Consulting, Chicago, Illinois

Evaluation of Approaches to Reducing Women's Longevity Risk
Beverly J. Orth, Principal, Mercer Human Resource Consulting, Portland, Oregon

Estimates of the Incidence, Prevalence, Duration, Intensity, and Cost of Chronic Disability among the U.S. Elderly
Eric Stallard, Research Professor, Department of Sociology and Associate Director, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

11:55 p.m.–1:40 p.m.
Luncheon with Speaker

Luncheon Presentation: The MacArthur Initiative on an Aging Society: Population Forecasts for the U.S.
S. Jay Olshansky, Professor, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

1:50 p.m.–3:15 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 4

4A, New Models of Advanced Age Mortality
Discussant:
Thomas P. Edwalds, Assistant Vice President, Mortality Research, Munich American Reassurance Co, Chicago, Illinois

Papers:
Inference for Logistic–type Models for the Force of Mortality
Louis G. Doray, Professor, Department of Math and Statistics, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Predictive Modeling for Advanced Age Mortality
Lijia Guo, Principal Financial Engineer/Actuary, Algorithmics Inc., Newton, Massachusetts


4B, Mortality Measurement and Prediction

Discussant:
Elizabeth Arias, Health Scientist, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, Maryland

Papers:
Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois Natalia S. Gavrilova, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity, with Applications to U.S. Data and Some Implications for U.S. Public Programs
Jacob S. Siegel, Demographic Consultant, J. Stuart Siegel Demographic Services, North Bethesda, Maryland

3:30 p.m.–4:55 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions 5

5A, Longevity Risk Pricing

Discussant:
Michael L. Kaster, Senior Consultant, Watson Wyatt Insurance & Financial Services, Inc., Berwyn, Pennsylvania

Papers:
Living to 100: Survival to Advanced Ages: Insurance Industry Implication on Retirement Planning and the Secondary Market in Insurance
Jay Vadiveloo, Professor and Director of the Deloitte–University of Connecticut Actuarial Center and Senior Manager, Deloitte Consulting LLP, Hartford, Connecticut
Peng Zhou, Investment Officer, Sun Life Financial, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts,
Charles Vinsonhaler, Professor, Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut
Sudath Ranasinghe, PhD Candidate, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut

Longevity Risk Pricing
Jiajia Cui, PhD Candidate, Tilburg University, Tilburg, the Netherlands


5B, Prediction from Data

Discussant:
Joseph Lu, Senior Actuary, Synesis Life, London, England

Papers:
Data Validation and Measurement of Cohort Mortality among Centenarians in Quebec (Canada) According to Place of Birth and Ethnic Origin
Melissa Beaudry–Godin, PhD Candidate, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Robert Bourbeau, Professor and Chairperson, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Bertrand Desjardins, Researcher, Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Physical and Socio-Economic Characteristics at Young Age as Predictors of Survival to 100. A study of a new historical data resource (the US WWI draft cards)
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Research Associate of the Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Research Associate of the Center Center on Aging, NORC, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

==========================================

Day 3, Wednesday, January 9

8:00 a.m.–9:15 a.m.
General Session 3, Biological Perspectives on Aging

Discussant:
Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, Baltimore, Maryland

Papers:
Entropy Explains Aging, Genetic Determinism Explains Longevity, and Undefined Terminology Explains Misunderstanding Both
Leonard Hayflick, Professor of Anatomy, University of California, San Francisco, School of Medicine, San Francisco, California

9:30 a.m.–11:15 a.m.
Concurrent Sessions 6

6A, Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Discussant:
W. Ward Kingkade, Statistician/Demographer, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D.C.

Papers:
On Simulation-Based Approaches to Risk Measurement in Mortality with Specific Reference to Binomial Lee-Carter Modeling
Steven Haberman, Professor of Actuarial Science and Deputy Dean, Cass Business School, City University, London, England
Arthur Renshaw, Cass Business School, City University, London, England

A Study of the Lee–Carter Model with a Jump
Jack C. Yue, Professor, Department of Statistics, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan
Sharon S. Yang, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Mathematics, College of Business, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan
Hong–Chih Huang, Assistant Professor, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan

Testing Deterministic Versus Stochastic Trends in the Lee–Carter Mortality Indexes and Its Implications for Projecting Mortality Improvements at Advanced Ages
Wai–Sum Chan, Professor, Department of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China
Siu–Hang Li, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Siu–Hung Cheung, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, PR China


6B, Health Status and Its Impact on Mortality

Discussant:
S. Jay Olshansky, Professor, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

Papers:
Health Expectancy
Faye S. Albert, President, Albert Associates, Miami, Florida
James C. Brooks, Actuarial Consultant, John M Bragg & Associates Inc., Marietta, Georgia
John M. Bragg, Chairman, John M Bragg & Associates Inc., Atlanta, Georgia

Human Behaviour: An Impediment toward Future Mortality Improvement
Sam Gutterman, Director & Consulting Actuary, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Chicago, Illinois

Health, Wealth and Wisdom–Living Long, Living Well
Michael J. Cowell, Yarmouth, Maine


11:25 a.m.–11:45 a.m.
Closing Remarks

Symposium Co–Chairperson: Robert J. Johansen
Symposium Co–Chairperson: Timothy F. Harris,
Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia Member: Sam Gutterman,

-------------THE END ----------------------------

Source: Click here

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'American Scientist' Story on Aging & Longevity

Greetings,

Recently the American Scientist Magazine has published an interesting story "The Undiscovered Country" on aging and longevity topic, where our research studies and findings are also discussed:

"... as University of Chicago gerontologists Leonid Gavrilov and Natalia Gavrilova have argued in their influential book The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach, the very redundancy that permits complex systems to endure a constant rain of light damage also allows such damage to accumulate, resulting in aging and eventual failure. Surprisingly, the higher the level of redundancy, the faster the force of mortality accelerates with age."

The article contains bibliography of eight references, starting with our two publications:

Gavrilov, L. A., and N. S. Gavrilova. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Harwood Academic Publishers. http://tinyurl.com/2am4l3

Gavrilov, L. A., and N. S. Gavrilova. 2002. Evolutionary theories of aging and longevity. The Scientific World Journal 2:339-356. http://longevity-science.org/Evolution.pdf

This story is written by Dr. Robert L. Dorit, who is an associate professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Smith College. His work focuses on experimental evolution of molecules and bacteria, and on the design of novel antibiotics. Address: 435 Sabin-Reed Hall, Clark Science Center, 44 College Lane, Northampton, MA 01063. E-mail: rdorit(at)smith.edu

This American Scientist paper published in the "MARGINALIA" section of the magazine is concluded in the following, perhaps questionable way:

"Ultimately, what does it suggest to have so many competing theories of death? I would argue it is the hallmark of a vibrant field, one in its early phases. The many explanations jostle and compete, driven by our shared belief that death may be inevitable, but it is not incomprehensible. The identification of genes involved in determining lifespan, the demonstration that lifestyle and environment can delay death, the technologies that extend life -- all fuel our fascination with the topic. But the aging population in the developed world (including its scientists) also propels the field. In the end, however, if our real motivation is to loosen death's grip on humanity, we need to go beyond a material understanding of the biology of aging, lifespan and death. Most of humanity still does not die of old age, "sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything," as Jaques laments in As You Like It. Instead, most of humanity dies young, of preventable causes brought about by poverty and unequal access to health care. Any account of the causes of death that focuses solely on biology without considering the social and economic settings in which our biology plays out is at best incomplete, and at worse, misguided. Over my lifetime, cheating death may not be about tricking the limits of our biology, but instead about changing how we live our lives."

We feel that the area of aging research is more mature than described in this article (see Gavrilov, Gavrilova, 2006a), and the opportunities for delaying aging in our lifetime are better than the author believes (see Gavrilov, Gavrilova, 2006b). We agree however, that only the future will tell who is right.

Read More Here

American Scientist



To read comments on this story, and to post your own thoughts, click here


Key words:
American Scientist,Aging, American Scientist Magazine, Longevity,Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova, System Redundancy, Mortality, Biology of Life Span, Robert Dorit, Robert L. Dorit


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Sex and Longevity

Greetings,

Recently a flurry of news reports have appeared in the media, claiming that sexual activity increases human lifespan:

A study conducted by Queens University in Belfast, Ireland, found that sex on a regular basis is not only healthy for our bodies but also improves our overall length of life.

The study was published in 1997 in the British Medical Journal and tracked the mortality of about 1,000 middle-aged men over the course of a decade. The study compared men of comparable age and health and found that men who had the highest frequency of orgasm had a death rate half that of the other men who did not orgasm frequently.

Well, here is the original study:

-------------------------------------------

BMJ: British Medical Journal, International Edition
BMJ 1997;315:1641-1644 (20 December)

Sex and death: are they related? Findings from the Caerphilly cohort study

George Davey Smith, professor of clinical epidemiology,^a Stephen Frankel, professor of epidemiology and public health medicine,^a John Yarnell, senior lecturer <sup>b

a</sup> Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2PR, ^b Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Queen's University of Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BJ

Objective: To examine the relation between frequency of orgasm and mortality.

Study design: Cohort study with a 10 year follow up.

Setting: The town of Caerphilly, South Wales, and five adjacent villages.

Subjects: 918 men aged 45-59 at time of recruitment between 1979 and 1983.

Main outcome measures: All deaths and deaths from coronary heart disease.

Result: Mortality risk was 50% lower in the group with high orgasmic frequency than in the group with low orgasmic frequency, with evidence of a dose-response relation across the groups. Age adjusted odds ratio for all cause mortality was 2.0 for the group with low frequency of orgasm (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.5, test for trend P=0.02). With adjustment for risk factors this became 1.9 (1.0 to 3.4, test for trend P=0.04). Death from coronary heart disease and from other causes showed similar associations with frequency of orgasm, although the gradient was most marked for deaths from coronary heart disease. Analysed in terms of actual frequency of orgasm, the odds ratio for total mortality associated with an increase in 100 orgasms per year was 0.64 (0.44 to 0.95).

Conclusion: Sexual activity seems to have a protective effect on men's health.



-----------

My Comment:
Not sure why the media have chosen to put in the News this study published 10 years ago, but anyway, have a nice weekend and enjoy the holidays in the most healthy way!
See also:
Longevity Science: LOVE
A word of caution:
Even if these findings are correct, they are open to interpretation, because of reversed causality possible. In other words, it is possible that it is not the higher sexual activity that causes a better health, but the reversed situation -- having a better health causes a higher sexual activity among particularly healthy men.
How can we disentangle these two alternative hypotheses?
Post your ideas here!


Key words:
Sex, Death, Mortality, Caerphilly cohort study, orgasm, coronary heart disease, men's health, longevity, Sexual Activity, human lifespan, love

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Body Size and Human Longevity

Discussion of a new book Human Body Size and the Laws of Scaling: Physiological Performance, Growth, Longevity... by Thomas T. Samaras, et al.


Greetings,

Here is a new book for discussion:

Human Body Size and the Laws of Scaling:
Physiological, Performance, Growth, Longevity
and Ecological Ramifications
by Thomas T. Samaras, Andrzej Bartke and C. David Rollo


Book description:

This book provides the most comprehensive coverage available of the human body and its relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic factors.
This unique book takes a systems approach to human size and its relation to various aspects of life, including changes in biochemical factors, chronic disease risk, nutrition and longevity. Other topics include the advantages and disadvantages of taller and shorter height, the causes of the obesity epidemic, and the harmful effects of catch-up and accelerated growth. The ramifications of increase levels of growth hormone are also discussed.
Other topics include the relations among birth weight, body size and intelligence, and several chapters deal with animal size and longevity and evolutionary ecology and its relation to body size and changing physical characteristics, including brain size and longevity.

The chapters are listed below and the book contains over 1000 references:


Chapter Contents:

Why the Study of Human Size is Important

Human Scaling and the Body Mass Index

Advantages of Taller Human Height

Advantages of Shorter Human Height

Body Height and its Relation to Chronic Disease and Longevity

BMI and Weight: Their Relation to Diabetes, CVD, Cancer and all-Cause Mortality

The Obesity Epidemic, Birthweight, Rapid Growth and Superior Nutrition

Long-lived Mutant, Gene Knockout and Transgenic Mice

The Evolutionary Ecology of Body Size with Special Reference to Allometry and Survivorship

Overview of Research on Giant Transgenic Mice with Emphasis on the Brain and Aging

Speculations on the Evolutionary Ecology of Homo Sapiens with Special Reference to Body Size, Allometry and Survivorship

Birthweight, Height, Brain Size and Intellectual Ability

Impact of Body Size on Resources, Pollution, the Environment and Economics

Final Remarks on Human Size, Scaling and Ecological Implications

Appendix A:
Symbols, Acronyms and Abbreviations used in text

Appendix B:
Technical review of the molecular and physiological aspects relevant to body size, free radicals and aging

Index.


Contributors:
Andrzej Bartke, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine
C. David Rollo, McMaster University, Canada
Thomas T. Samaras, Reventropy Associates, San Diego, California


To read comments on this book, and to post your own thoughts, click here


Key words:
Body size, Human Longevity, Laws of Scaling, Height, Obesity Epidemic, Catch-up growth, Body Mass Index, Human Height, Chronic Disease, Diabetes, CVD, Cancer, all-Cause Mortality, Birthweight, Rapid Growth, Nutrition, Allometry, Survivorship, Thomas T. Samaras, Andrzej Bartke, C. David Rollo

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New York Meeting

Greetings,

We are pleased to announce our two upcoming presentations at the 2007 Population Association of America Annual meeting this week. These two poster presentations will be held at the New York Marriott Marquis hotel, 1535 Broadway, New York, NY 10036, (212) 398-1900, at the following dates and locations:


Poster Session 1
Thursday, March 29
8:00 AM - 10:00 AM
Westside Salon 3-4
5th floor

Poster # 9.
Physical Markers at Young Age and Survival to 100:
A Study of a New Historical Data Resource (The U.S. WWI Draft Cards)
by Natalia S. Gavrilova and Leonid A. Gavrilov, University of Chicago



Poster Session 7
Saturday, March 31
9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
Westside Salon 3-4
5th floor

Poster # 39.
Problems of Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages
by Leonid A. Gavrilov, University of Chicago


Looking forward to see you there!

Actuarial Talk

Mark your calendar for March 13 lecture on human longevity at the Chicago Actuarial Association (CAA) workshop!


Greetings,

We are pleased to announce our upcoming invited lecture on Human Longevity Studies to be held on Tuesday, March 13 in Chicago:

Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity

Time:
Tuesday, March 13, 4:10 pm

Location:
Chicago downtown,
Building of the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Illinois,
300 East Randolph Street, CAL level, room for C2 session
NothEast corner of Randolph and Columbus Drive
Chicago, IL 60601

Everybody is cordially invited, but the admission requires a prior registration at the Chicago Actuarial Association at:

http://chicagoactuarialassociation.org/

and a picture ID will be also asked at the reception.

Hope to see you there!

Here is a brief description our upcoming talk:

Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity

- This presentation will discuss new developments and findings from the ongoing study of predictors of exceptional human longevity. Topics include: the effects of maternal age at person's birth, family size, birth-order, season of birth, geography of childhood residence, and parental occupation, socioeconomic status, and parental lifespan.

P.S.:
By the way, if you are curious to know who are the actuaries, and what is the actuarial profession about, please take a look at these new actuarial books:

Market-Valuation Methods in Life and Pension Insurance (International Series on Actuarial Science)
by Thomas Moeller and Mogens Steffensen, 2007



Financial and Actuarial Mathematics
by Yiu Kuen Tse and Wai-Sum Chan, 2007



Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics
by S. David Promislow, 2006