New Study on Human Aging, Mortality and Longevity

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

We are pleased to share with you the results of our new study, just published by a professional journal Demografie:

Ageing and Longevity:
Mortality Laws and Mortality Forecasts for Ageing Populations
Demografie, 2011, 53(2): 109-128.

Full text is available online at:
http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Demografie-2011.pdf

If you have any difficulty reading Czech, the English translation is available here:

http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Demografie-English-2011.pdf

Abstract:

The increase in the number of people surviving to an advanced age poses a serious challenge to the government pension systems of industrialised societies. Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improve forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group.

In this article the authors present some new approaches to mortality and population projections at older ages using Swedish period life table data. Using two simple assumptions about age- and time patterns of mortality change (log-linear decline of mortality over time and exponential growth of hazard rates with age up to very advanced ages), the authors made mortality projections for Swedish males and females for the next fifty years.

Keywords:

ageing population, mortality laws, Gompertz-Makeham law, background (component of) mortality, senescent (component of) mortality, mortality at advanced ages, mortality forecast

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

To read and post comments, click here.

Best wishes,

-- Leonid and Natalia


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-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
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