Friday, September 26, 2014

New Study of Old-Age Survival

Dear Colleagues,

We are pleased to alert you about our new published peer-reviewed study of old-age survival:

Mortality Trajectories at Extreme Old Ages:
A Comparative Study of Different Data Sources on U.S. Old-Age Mortality
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. 
In: 2014 Living to 100 Monograph
[published online  –  August, 2014, http://livingto100.soa.org/].
The Society of Actuaries, 2014, 23 pages

Full text is available at:
https://www.soa.org/Library/Monographs/Life/Living-To-100/2014/mono-li14-3a-gavrilova.pdf
Shorter weblink:
http://tinyurl.com/Mortality-2014

Abstract:

     The growing number of individuals living beyond age 80 underscores the need for accurate measurement of mortality at advanced ages. Our earlier published study challenged the common view that the exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase (Gavrilov and Gavrilova 2011). This refutation of mortality deceleration was made using records from the U.S. Social Security Administration’s Death Master File (DMF).

      Taking into account the significance of this finding for actuarial theory and practice, we tested these earlier observations using additional independent datasets and alternative statistical approaches. In particular, the following data sources for U.S. mortality at advanced ages were analyzed: (1) data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) on age-specific death rates for 1890–99 U.S. birth cohorts, (2) recent extinct birth cohorts of U.S. men and women based on DMF data, and (3) mortality data for railroad retirees.

       In the case of HMD data, the analyses were conducted for 1890–99 birth cohorts in the age range 80–106. Mortality was fitted by the Gompertz and logistic (Kannisto) models using weighted nonlinear regression and Akaike information criterion as the goodness-of-fit measure. All analyses were conducted separately for men and women. It was found that for all studied HMD birth cohorts, the Gompertz model demonstrated better fit of mortality data than the Kannisto model in the studied age interval. Similar results were obtained for U.S. men and women born in 1890–99 and railroad retirees born in 1895–99 using the full DMF file (obtained from the National Technical Information Service, or NTIS). It was also found that mortality estimates obtained from the DMF records are close to estimates obtained using the HMD cohort data.

       An alternative approach for studying mortality patterns at advanced ages is based on calculating the age-specific rate of mortality change (life table aging rate, or LAR) after age 80. This approach was applied to age-specific death rates for Canada, France, Sweden and the United States available in HMD. It was found that for all 24 studied single-year birth cohorts, LAR does not change significantly with age in the age interval 80–100, suggesting no mortality deceleration in this interval. Simulation study of LAR demonstrated that the apparent decline of LAR after age 80 found in earlier studies may be related to biased estimates of mortality rates measured in a wide five-year age interval.

       Taking into account that there exists several empirical estimates of hazard rate (Nelson-Aalen, actuarial and Sacher), a simulation study was conducted to find out which one is the most accurate and unbiased estimate of hazard rate at advanced ages. Computer simulations demonstrated that some estimates of mortality (Nelson-Aalen and actuarial) as well as kernel smoothing of hazard rates may produce spurious mortality deceleration at extreme ages, while the Sacher estimate turns out to be the most accurate estimate of hazard rate. Possible reasons for finding apparent mortality deceleration in earlier studies are also discussed.

        This study was supported in part by National Institutes of Health grant R01 AG028620

--------------------------------------------------------

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

Kind regards,

-- Leonid  and  Natalia

-------------------------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/

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2:41 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We can provide the best possible logistics and transport service in Vadodara to all our clients and that also at a budget-friendly cost. So let’s see at a glance the stuff we offer to all our clients.

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3:05 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We do complete physical inspection and study of the consignment before shipping, and choose the right vehicle and machinery for transportation of ODC.

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3:46 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We have an ample number of cargo transporting trucks for shipping goods to any parts of the country which we offer at an affordable cost. We have a presence in almost all the big cities across the country including all metro cities and towns.

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4:29 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

Our well-maintained team of experienced professionals will help you in all possible way in delivering the best possible services at a budget-friendly cost. So let us see what you can expect to get from us by hiring our services.

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4:56 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We provide custom services based on client’s requirements, that is we first analyze client’s requirements and then accordingly we suggest them a suitable service package that best suits their needs as well a budget.

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11:27 PM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We provide custom services based on client’s requirements, that is we first analyze client’s requirements and then accordingly we suggest them a suitable service package that best suits their needs as well a budget.

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11:44 PM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

We are capable of transporting and processing projects size of 50-100 tonnes with the help of specialized vehicles. Apart from logistics we also offer various transportation services to our clients at a very affordable cost.

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12:50 AM  
Blogger mahak logistic said...

Our specialists ensure to provide these services utilizing special air craft’s that make sure to dispatch the goods at customers’ premises within the promised time frame. We have expertise in handling ODC, machinery, and equipment professionally.

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1:12 AM  
Anonymous Ankitech said...

We Ankitech give great quality healing center furniture in India
Our doctor’s facility informal lodging types of gear are of top quality. We provide best quality beds like ICU bed, ICCU beds, Fowler bed , Semi bloom bed,Electric BedLabour Bed,Medical Furniture,Medical Table,Medical Trolley,Ward Furniture and Wheel Chair
We trust that we should furnish patients with particular therapeutic quaint little inns furniture.
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11:45 PM  
Anonymous shreedurgapg said...

Great story….Keep on sharing… Thanks
Shree Durga pg, Gurgaon offers fully furnished single or sharing pg room in different sectors of Gurgaon including sector 34, sector 31, sector 39, sector 48 and sector 49. Contact Shree Durga pg sector 48, Near Indian Oil Petrol Pump, Gurgaon and get fully furnished and more spacious Pg for Boys near market and malls within walking distance.

2:05 AM  
Anonymous Tivragati Packers said...

Tivragati Packers and Movers has over 10 years of practical working experience connecting major states. From all over the network the firm has received adorations and applauses due to their efficient services. Packers and movers offers high quality packing services so that the entire process becomes seamless.
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7:00 AM  

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