Any Interesting Contacts in Taiwan?

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

We wonder whether you may know any interesting scientists in Taiwan?

We are thinking of possible trip to Taiwan this May 24 - 28, and we would be interested to meet aging & longevity researchers there.

Please advise.

Thank you, and looking forward to hear from you,


-- Leonid and Natalia

P.S.: Topics of our possible lectures in Taiwan are listed here:

http://longevity-science.org/invited_talks.html



-------------------------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/




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Press Release: Mortality Grossly Underestimated at Older Ages, New Study Finds

Dear Friend and Colleagues,

Feel free to disseminate widely our News Release (please see below) on important topic of human mortality and longevity, among reporters and journalists you may know, for their coverage of new research findings.

Full text of the original peer-reviewed article is available upon your request.

Thank you, and looking forward to hear from you,

Kind regards,


-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

=================================

Press Release

Longevity Chances Grossly Overestimated, New Study Finds


The chances to reach extreme old age are much lower than previously thought, new research shows

Research just published by a team of demographers at the social science research organization NORC at the University of Chicago contradicts a long-held belief that the mortality rate of Americans flattens out above age 80.

It also explains why there are only half as many people in the U.S. age 100 and above than the Census Bureau predicted there would be as recently as six years ago.

The research is based on a new way of accurately measuring mortality of Americans who are 80 years of age and older, an issue that has proven remarkably elusive in the past. The work will be significant in arriving at more accurate cost projections for programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which are based in part on mortality rates.

The research, done by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova, and published in the current edition of the North American Actuarial Journal, is based on highly accurate information about the date of birth and the date of death of more than nine million Americans born between 1875 and 1895. The data is publicly available in the Social Security Administration Death Master File (SSA DMF). “It is a remarkable resource that allowed us to build what is called an extinct birth cohort that corrects or explains a number of misunderstandings about the mortality rate of our oldest citizens,” said Leonid Gavrilov.

A stark example of the problem of estimating the number of people over 100 came recently when the U.S. Census Bureau revised sharply downward the number of living centenarians. Six years ago, the bureau predicted that by 2010 there would be 114,000 people age 100 or older. The actual number turned out to be 53,364. The projection was wrong by a factor of two.

The newly published paper, titled “Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File,” explains the discrepancy and is likely to make a difference in the way mortality projections for the very old are done in the future.

The key finding is straightforward—the rate of mortality growth with age of the oldest Americans is the same as that for those who are younger. The research reveals that mortality deceleration, the long-held belief that the mortality rate flattens out above age 80, does not take place.

Anne Zissu, chair of the Department of Business NYC College of Technology/CUNY, said the research provides “an essential tool” for developing models on seniors’ financial assets.

Zissu said the research “will alter our financial approach to this valuation of mortality/longevity risk. Demographers and financiers need to work on this issue together, and their models must adapt to each other.”

The mortality rate for people between the ages of 30 and 80 follows what is called the Gompertz Law, named for its founder, Benjamin Gompertz, who observed in 1825 that a person’s risk of death in a given year doubles every eight years of age. It is a phenomenon that holds up across nations and over time and is an important part of the foundation of actuarial science.

For approximately 70 years, demographers have believed that above age 80 the Gompertz Law did not hold and that mortality rates flattened out. The work done by the Gavrilovs, a husband-and-wife team, reveals that the Gompertz Law holds at least through age 106, and probably higher, but the researchers say mortality data for those older than 106 is unreliable.

The Gavrilovs say the extinct birth cohort of people born between 1875 and 1895, which they built using the Social Security Administration Death Master File, reveals beyond question that the mortality rate of people in that cohort aligns with the Gompertz Law.

“It amazes me that the Gompertz model fits so well nearly 200 years after he proposed it. I like the approach of using extinct cohorts methods on SSA DMF data by month and the use of male-female ratios to test the quality of the data at advanced ages," said Tom Edwalds, Assistant Vice President, Mortality Research, for the Munich American Reassurance Company.

Prior estimates of the number of centenarians in the United States were made in less direct ways that were subject to error. They depended, for example, on people self-reporting their age in the U.S. Census, which is less reliable than having actual birth and death data.

Gavrilov and Gavrilova work at the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging, one of the Academic Research Centers of NORC. The study is supported by the National Institute on Aging.

The Chicago Actuarial Association (CAA) has invited the authors to present their new findings at the CAA annual meeting in Chicago on March 13.

Full text of the original peer-reviewed published study is publicly available at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3269912/


About the Study Authors:

Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., is Principal Investigator of research project "Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity in the United States," awarded by 5-year grant from the National Institutes of Health, NIH. For more information, visit: http://www.norc.org/Experts/Pages/leonid-a-gavrilov.aspx . Contact e-mail: gavrilov(at)longevity-science.org

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., is a Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America, and the author of over a hundred scientific publications. For more information, visit: http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm


About NORC:

NORC at the University of Chicago is an independent research organization headquartered in downtown Chicago with additional offices on the University of Chicago's campus and in the D.C. Metro area. NORC also supports a nationwide field staff as well as international research operations. With clients throughout the world, NORC collaborates with government agencies, foundations, educational institutions, nonprofit organizations, and businesses to provide data and analysis that support informed decision making in key areas including health, education, economics, crime, justice, energy, security, and the environment. NORC’s 70 years of leadership and experience in data collection, analysis, and dissemination—coupled with deep subject matter expertise—provides the foundation for effective solutions.

=======================================



.

Expert Opinions on New Actuarial Study

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

Here are some expert opinions regarding our new published study on old-age mortality. At this moment we do not disclose the identity of some experts, unless we have their explicit permission to do so. We hope that over time most names could be disclosed.

======================================

"The new research by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova, that focuses on mortality of Americans who are 90 years of age and older and its results will alter our financial approach to this valuation [of mortality/longevity risk]. Demographers and financiers need to work on this issue together, and their models must adapt to each others.

Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova’s research, and particularly this new study, is a great contribution to our society and an essential tool for financiers trying to develop models that focus on transforming seniors’ illiquid assets into liquid assets towards the use of financing their remaining years’ expenses."

Dr. Anne Zissu, (Sun, 08 Jan 2012)
Chair, Department of Business
NYC College of Technology, CUNY
===================================

"I am very glad to see your findings,with which I concur. ... Fight on! "

Caleb E. Finch, Ph.D., (Wed, 18 Jan 2012)
Professor in Gerontology, Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
===================================

"Thanks for sending this very interesting article, which I found compelling."

Susan Alberts (Mon, 23 Jan 2012 )
Professor of Biology, Duke University; and Associate Director for Science, National Evolutionary Synthesis Center (NESCent), Durham NC
===================================

"...thank you very much for the indeed very interesting paper. The question of mortality deceleration (if existing at all, when, how, …) plays also an important role in my works."

Marc Luy, (Mon, 23 Jan 2012)
Senior Scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria
===================================

"Congratulations for your article. At last a scientific document arguing against the fashion about mortality deceleration. Each time I objected to these arguments, ..., I was considered as a fool. ... Your paper is really a great paper."

Noel Bonneuil, (Tue, 24 Jan and Sun, 19 Feb, 2012)
Editor-in-chief: Mathematical Population Studies journal
French Demographic Institute (INED), Paris, France
===================================

"I must say, it is a beautiful paper; logical, well organized, clearly written, great overview of the literature both past and present, and absolutely full of new and useful insights on age-related mortality at old ages. So, congratulations to both you and Leonid for producing such an informative paper!!! I am particularly pleased as a former Argonne research scientist that George Sacher's work continues to be relevant, consistent with emerging realities and actually amazingly insightful."

Bruce A. Carnes, Ph.D. (Tue, 24 Jan 2012)
Professor, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center
Reynolds Department of Geriatric Medicine
Oklahoma City, OK
===================================

"I just reviewed your article; it's excellent....great methodology and very interesting findings, so thanks for sharing it with me. ... It's truly is a great piece of scholarly work ... and informative too."

Steven Prus, ( Fri, 27 Jan and Sat, 18 Feb, 2012)
Associate Professor, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
===================================

"Your suggestion that mortality deceleration is partly an artifact of mixing of cohorts and misreporting of age seems to me to be an insightful and unique finding."

Dr. James J. Anderson, (Sat, 28 Jan 2012)
Research Professor, University of Washington, Seattle
===================================

Your finding of the linear logarithmic function in old age region was striking - it's exactly what my graphs are showing. I'll continue reading and re-reading. Quite interesting article!"

Jan Karman ( Sun, 29 Jan 2012)
Demographer, Middelburg, The Netherlands
===================================

"Very creative approach with a great data-set"

Donald K. Ingram, Ph.D. (Thu, 2 Feb 2012)
Professor, Nutritional Neuroscience and Aging Laboratory
Director, Animal Metabolism and Behavior Core
Pennington Biomedical Research Center (www.pbrc.edu)
Louisiana State University System
6400 Perkins Road
Baton Rouge, LA 70808
===================================

"Congratulations on the new publication!! It is indeed a very interesting study. Very unique! Thank you for sharing."

Hiroko H. Dodge, PhD (Sat, 4 Feb 2012)
Director, Biostatistics and Data Core, Layton Aging and Alzheimer's Disease Research Center
Associate Professor, Department of Neurology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA
===================================

"Your paper presents an important challenge to observations of mortality deceleration at the extreme ages among human beings. You show that, despite all its deficits, the Death Master File contains a large enough volume of data to make contributions to the study of human mortality at these ages. In its large birth year cohorts, the DMF contains data whose homogeneity, at least in theory, exceeds data constructed from wider groupings."
-- KF, Tue, 17 Jan 2012, @polysystems.com

"This looks like an extraordinarily meticulous study"
-- JC, Tue, 17 Jan 2012, @ucdavis.edu

"Thanks for sending me the paper! My group is doing a lot of work on the role of cohort processes influencing long-term trends in adult mortality. Although we haven't tackled mortality at advanced ages, your paper fills in some of the gaps in our work."
-- MH, Thu, 19 Jan 2012, @prc.utexas.edu

"Nice paper Leonid. I'll be referring to your paper in my next manuscript..."
-- JO, Thu, 19 Jan 2012, @uic.edu

"Many thanks for sending me the completed version of the SSA data article. I have read it in detail. It has very serious implications for the field."
-- KW, Thu, 19 Jan 2012, @demog.berkeley.edu

"A quick look at it indicates that you have taken on an important problem and have challenged a common assumption of decelerating mortality at older ages"
-- KS, Sun, 22 Jan 2012, @fcs.utah.edu

"Very interesting. It confirms my experience trying to resolve other questions in the Framingham Heart Study data set, in which there are many traps and pitfalls that create opportunities to draw incorrect conclusions."
-- SS, Tue, 24 Jan 2012, @yale.edu

"I’m pleased to learn that there still is important age exaggeration going on."
-- JF, Tue, 24 Jan 2012, @stanford.edu

"You make a fairly strong case for using a Gompertz model for the oldest old, at least up through age 106 or so, in cases where data for homogenous cohorts are analyzed."
-- TE, Sun, 29 Jan 2012, @austin.utexas.edu

"Very interesting results, thanks for sharing. I've always been skeptical about the unobserved heterogeneity ideas but never expected your findings."
-- ST, Thu, 16 Feb 2012, @stanford.edu

=====================





.

Frequently Asked Questions on New Longevity Study

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

Now we are receiving a lot of requests and questions from reporters regarding our new published study on old-age mortality.

In order to save time for everyone, here are some frequently asked questions and our suggested answers:

Question 1:
If death rates don't really slow down when we reach advanced ages, why did previous researchers conclude that they did? Where did they go wrong?

Answer:

There are several reasons why old-age death rates were underestimated, and the most simple explanation (but not the only one) is data quality.

Usually when death rates are calculated they are based on the ratios of the number of deaths to number of alive persons at given age. The number of alive persons (denominator) is estimated from Census data, which depend on self-reported claims of persons' age. Self-reported claims of persons' age are not very accurate, particularly at advanced ages, when age exaggeration is common. Thus the denominator is prone to overestimation, leading to underestimation of the ratio (death rates).

In our study we used a different approach based on the method of extinct generations, which do not rely on self-reported claims of persons' age, but rather on the documented ages of deceased persons. We discuss this topic in great detail in our article at
http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Mortality-NAAJ-2011.pdf

Our new published study has passed the scrutiny of independent evaluation by three anonymous experts-reviewers, before our manuscript was accepted for publication. The whole process took two years, and the final article addressed all suggestions made by the reviewers So, there are good reasons to be confident in these new peer-reviewed findings.

-------------------------------

Question 2:
Other than correcting a basic misunderstanding about aging and mortality -- which is undoubtedly important in itself -- why does this matter?

Answer:

Recently the science journalist and writer Jan TenBruggencate made the following comment on our new study in his blog:

"The findings have serious impacts. All kinds of calculations are based on the assumption of how many elderly will be alive, and how fast they’re dying: retirement planning, annuities, insurance policies, Social Security payments, care home cost projections, an entire range of health care numbers, and lots more."

http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2012/02/hawaii-elderly-dying-faster-than-theory.html

We believe that this comment is a compelling answer to this question.

Also after our new NAAJ publication we were invited to present and discuss our findings at the Advisory Board Meeting of a financial organization (BroadRiver Asset Management) located in the New York Empire State Building. We travelled there from Chicago, and after our presentation we got the following feedback from one of the Advisory Board members, Dr. Anne Zissu, Chair, Department of Business NYC College of Technology, CUNY:

"The new research by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova, that focuses on mortality of Americans who are 90 years of age and older and its results will alter our financial approach to this valuation [of mortality/longevity risk]. Demographers and financiers need to work on this issue together, and their models must adapt to each others.

Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova’s research, and particularly this new study, is a great contribution to our society and an essential tool for financiers trying to develop models that focus on transforming seniors’ illiquid assets into liquid assets towards the use of financing their remaining years’ expenses."

Dr. Anne Zissu kindly allowed us to cite publicly her opinion on our work. Contact information for Dr. Anne Zissu is available upon the request.

Also after our new publication we were invited by the Chicago Actuarial Association (CAA) to present and discuss our new research findings at their annual meeting in Chicago on March 13 this year. Being invited speakers at such an event with about a hundred participating experts is a form of recognition for the significance of our new study

--------------------------

Question 3:
How did this paper come about?

Answer:

We became interested in studies on aging, longevity and extension of healthy lifespan from the very start of our scientific career, and our first scientific articles on these topics were published in 1978. ( please see http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilov.htm and http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm )

When we wrote our book "The Biology of Life Span" in 1991, we emphasized the importance of longevity data analysis for testing competing theories of aging, and resolving the question about the biological limits to human longevity.

In 1997 we moved to the United States from Russia (getting the Green Card by US lottery), and started to look for available data resources in USA.

Here we learned about the existence of Social Security Administration Death Master File, which contains personal longevity information about almost everyone who died in USA after 1980s.

In 2005 we started to analyze this data set and presented our preliminary findings at several meetings of the Population Association of America, Gerontological Society of America and several international symposia "Living to 100" organized by the Society of Actuaries.

Our presentations were very well received by experts at these meeting, who encouraged us to continue these studies, provided very valuable advice, and then strongly recommended to publish our findings in professional peer-reviewed journal.

We just followed these recommendations from the scientific and actuarial communities.

------------------------------



.

Media Coverage of New Actuarial Study

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

We are pleased to share with you the list of media coverage for our new actuarial study, organized in alphabetic order:

Americans' lifespan shorter than previously thought, study finds
McKnight's Long Term Care News http://www.mcknights.com/americans-lifespan-shorter-than-previously-thought-study-finds/article/226497/

An Age-Old Debate
Wall Street Journal (blog) http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/an-age-old-debate-1122/

Chances of a Prolonged Life Bleaker Than Previously Predicted
MedIndia http://www.medindia.net/news/chances-of-a-prolonged-life-bleaker-than-previously-predicted-97234-1.htm

Death Gets in the Way of Old-Age Gains
Wall Street Journal - Mar 2, 2012 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577257292958403150.html

Living to age 100 may not be as easy as once believed
Chicago Sun-Times http://www.suntimes.com/lifestyles/health/10765999-423/living-to-age-100-may-not-be-as-easy-as-once-believed.html

Living to 100 May Be Tougher Than You Think
ABC7Chicago.com http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/health&id=8548530
Everyday Health http://www.everydayhealth.com/senior-health/0217/living-to-100-may-be-tougher-than-you-think.aspx
Doctors Lounge http://www.doctorslounge.com/index.php/news/hd/26841
HealthDay http://consumer.healthday.com/Article.asp?AID=661842
MedlinePlus http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_122061.html
MSN Health & Fitness http://health.msn.com/health-topics/aging/articlepage.aspx?cp-documentid=100286786
Tempo www.tempo.com.ph/2012/living-to-100-may-be-tougher-than-you-think/
U.S. News & World Report http://health.usnews.com/health-news/news/articles/2012/02/17/living-to-100-may-be-tougher-than-you-think
U.S. News & World Report (print) http://health.usnews.com/health-news/news/articles/2012/02/17/living-to-100-may-be-tougher-than-you-think_print.html
Womens Health.gov http://womenshealth.gov/news/headlines/661842.cfm

Medical: Predicting number of very old is confounding
ABC Action News http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/lifestyle/wellness/medical-predicting-number-of-very-old-is-confounding
Scripps Howard News Service http://www.scrippsnews.com/content/medical-predicting-number-very-old-confounding
The Republic http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/medical-veryold031412/medical-veryold031412/

Mortality rate after age 80 underestimated
Dalje.com http://dalje.com/en-lifestyle/mortality-rate-after-age-80-underestimated/414947
Individual.com http://www.individual.com/storyrss.php?story=151470701&hash=db7933453b1c817a5243614c6303a263
Investors Business Daily http://news.investors.com/Newsfeed/Article/140993726/201202062157/Mortality-rate-after-age-80-underestimated.aspx
Outcome Magazine http://outcomemag.com/health/2012/02/06/mortality-rate-after-age-80-underestimated/
UPI.com http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2012/02/06/Mortality-rate-after-age-80-underestimated/UPI-81071328575143/

Mortality Rates Are Underestimated
Environmental News Network (ENN) http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/44016
MSNBC News http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46426515

New Study Finds Odds of Living Very Long Life Lower Than Formerly Predicted
ABC News http://www.abcnews4.com/story/16687029/odds-of-living-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted
Scribillare http://www.scribillare.com/new-study-finds-odds-of-living-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted/

Odds of Living a Very Long Life Lower than Formerly Predicted

Boston Globe http://finance.boston.com/boston/news/read?GUID=20566094

Dallas Morning News - Mediawebsite.net http://www.mediawebsite.net/danews/story/?catSetID=7007&catID=290897&nrid=138795374&page=1
DigitalJournal.com (press release) http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/574946
EurekAlert (press release) http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-02/uoc-ool020612.php
HealthCanal.com http://www.healthcanal.com/geriatrics-aging/26287-Odds-living-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted.html
MarketWatch (press release) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/odds-of-living-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted-2012-02-06
Medical News Today http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/241293.php
MediLexicon http://www.medilexicon.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=241293
MD News (press release) http://www.mdnews.com/news/2012_02/odds-of-living-very-long-life
Newswise (press release) http://www.newswise.com/articles/odds-of-living-a-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted
Pharmacy Choice http://www.pharmacychoice.com/News/article.cfm?Article_ID=839268
PhysOrg http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-odds-life.html
PR Newswire (press release) http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/odds-of-living-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted-138795374.html
PR-USA.net http://pr-usa.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1068063&Itemid=30

Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/06/idUS183435+06-Feb-2012+PRN20120206

Sacramento Bee http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/06/4243224/odds-of-living-very-long-life.html
Science Daily http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120206143811.htm
SYS-CON Media (press release) http://www.sys-con.com/node/2155567
UChicagoNews http://news.uchicago.edu/article/2012/02/06/odds-living-very-long-life-lower-formerly-predicted

Wall Street Select http://investor.wallstreetselect.com/wss/news/read?GUID=20566094

Washington Business Journal http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/prnewswire/press_releases/Virginia/2012/02/06/DC39277

Yahoo! News http://news.yahoo.com/odds-living-very-long-life-lower-formerly-predicted-191206217.html

Predicting number of very old not easy
Yahoo! Local Beta News http://beta.local.yahoo.com/news-predicting-number-very-old-not-easy.html

Predicting the number of very old is confounding
The Davis Enterprise http://www.davisenterprise.com/opinion/opinion-columns/predicting-the-number-of-very-old-is-confounding/

Think You'll Live Long? Think Again
Discovery News http://news.discovery.com/human/mortality-rate-121702.html

Think you'll live to 100? Odds may be against you
Journal and Courier http://www.jconline.com/article/20120221/LIFE03/120220023

What Are Your Odds Of Living To 100?
RetirementHomes.com http://www.retirementhomes.com/library/what-are-your-odds-of-living-to-100/

Your Odds Of Living A Long Life Just Got Worse
RedOrbit http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/1112469805/your-odds-of-living-a-long-life-just-got-worse/

----------------

BLOGS:

A Counterpoint to the Concept of the Late Life Mortality Plateau
'Fight Aging!' Blog http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2012/01/a-counterpoint-to-the-concept-of-the-late-life-mortality-plateau.php

"All the more reason to work harder on the development of rejuvenation biotechnology, capable of repairing the damage of aging. Time waits for no one."

Computation Error Explains Census Bureau's Incorrect Estimate of Mortality Rate
http://teachingwithdata.blogspot.com/2012/02/computation-error-explains-census.html

Fewer Centenarians Than Previously Thought
FuturePundit http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/008507.html

"This makes intuitive sense to me. The more things go wrong in the body the more those things cause still other things to go wrong. Plus, each component is wearing out even without the influence of failing supporting components. So why expect a flattening of the mortality curve? We won't be able to flatten or, better yet, reverse the rising mortality rate with age until we can rejuvenate. Gotta repair or replace aging parts. ...
This report is yet another reminder: We need to develop rejuvenation therapies."
-- Randall Parker

Here’s More Bad News About Death
The Chronicle of Higher Education, Percolator Blog
http://chronicle.com/blogs/percolator/heres-more-bad-news-about-death/28562

In Hawai`i we live long, but like elderly everywhere, we're dying faster
http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2012/02/hawaii-elderly-dying-faster-than-theory.html

The findings have serious impacts. All kinds of calculations are based on the assumption of how many elderly will be alive, and how fast they’re dying: retirement planning, annuities, insurance policies, Social Security payments, care home cost projections, an entire range of health care numbers, and lots more -Jan TenBruggencate

Life Spans Predicted to be Shorter
Toonari Post http://www.toonaripost.com/2012/02/life-style/life-spans-predicted-to-be-shorter/

Living to 100 may be tougher than you think
Dr Walt's blog http://www.drwalt.com/blog/?p=6483

New Findings…Odds of Living a Very Long Life Lower than Formerly Predicted
8PAK.COM "Asia's Male Lifestyle Magazine" http://8pak.com/?p=4475

New research downgrades odds of reaching extreme old age
http://news.uchicago.edu/

Odds of Living a Very Long Life Lower than Formerly Predicted
Science Blog http://scienceblog.com/51981/odds-of-living-a-very-long-life-lower-than-formerly-predicted/

Studies on Mortality Rates
Wills, Trusts & Estates Prof Blog http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/trusts_estates_prof/2012/03/studies-on-mortality-rates.html

The Odds of Living A Long Life Challenged in New Study
The Checkup http://thecheckup.com/the-odds-of-living-a-long-life-challenged-in-new-study/

US Centenarians - Not as Common as Once Thought
Demography Is Destiny, MercatorNet’s blog http://www.mercatornet.com/demography/view/10268

"..this report should give us cause to hesitate before we plunge headlong into policies that have far-reaching effects but are based upon data that is perhaps unreliable. Not only do we not know where our temerity will land us in the future, we do not even necessarily know exactly what position we are jumping from."

.

New Study on Old-Age Mortality, Survival and Longevity

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

We are pleased to share with you the results of our new study, just published by a professional, peer-reviewed North American Actuarial Journal:

Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S.
Mortality measurement at advanced ages:
A study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File.
North American Actuarial Journal, 2011, 15(3): 432-447.

Full text is available online at:
http://longevity-science.org/pdf/Mortality-NAAJ-2011.pdf

This article refutes a common belief in old-age mortality deceleration, mortality leveling-off, and mortality plateaus in humans. This new published study has passed the scrutiny of independent evaluation by three anonymous experts-reviewers, before our manuscript was accepted for publication. The whole process took two years, and the final article addressed all suggestions made by the reviewers So, there are good reasons to be confident in these new peer-reviewed findings.

Here is the abstract of new article:

Abstract

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers:

(1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect);

(2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and

(3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated.

One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together.

In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated.

This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration.

Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages.

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Keywords:

Old-age mortality, mortality measurement, advanced ages, North American Actuarial Journal, Social Security Administration Death Master File, old-age mortality deceleration, mortality leveling-off, mortality plateaus, heterogeneity birth cohorts, old people, age exaggeration, extinct generations, Gompertz law, mortality underestimation, mortality laws, Gompertz-Makeham law, mortality at advanced ages, mortality forecasting

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Best wishes,

-- Leonid and Natalia

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-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
-- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
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