News on Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity

See also:
-- 'Books Forum' blog
-- 'Health Studies' blog


Greetings,

Here are some excerpts from the a new interview, which is just published by the scientific journal Rejuvenation Research:

Rejuvenation Research, 2009, 12(5): 371-374.
http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/rej.2009.0979
back-up copy:
http://health-studies.org/pdf/Interview-RR-2009.pdf

The excerpts are provided in their original, non-edited form, as they were initially presented before the publication.

Any comments and suggestions are welcome!

Please feel free to post your comments and suggestions below by clicking here.

-- Leonid Gavrilov

---------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D. , GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
Our books: http://longevity-science.org/Books.html

---------------------------------------------------

Excerpts from Interview

Question:

3. You have spearheaded the application of reliability theory to the modeling of aging and mortality. Reliability theory is designed to describe the behavior of man-made machines, which differ from living organisms in that they do not incorporate significant in-built self-repair machinery. To what extent do you feel that this difference diminishes the applicability of reliability theory to living organisms?


Answer:

Thank you for your kind comment on our 'spearheading' . Yes, we first started to apply reliability theory to the problem of biological aging more than 30 years ago, as early as in 1978 [1, 2], and since that time the reliability theory of aging and longevity has become well known in scientific literature [3 - 9]. To answer your question on applicability of reliability theory to living organisms, it is useful to consider separately two different topics: (1) applicability of reliability theory as a general concept; and (2) applicability of our particular mathematical models based on reliability theory.

Discussing the first topic, it is important to note that reliability theory is a general theory about systems failure. It allows researchers to predict the age-related failure kinetics for a system of given architecture (reliability structure) and given reliability of its components. Although historically it was initially applied to describe the behavior of man-made machines, nothing in this general mathematical theory prevents us from taking into account the in-built self-repair machinery, if this is needed. Therefore, there are no fundamental problems with applicability of reliability theory to living organisms, as there are no problems in applicability of mathematics in general to living organisms.

Discussing the second topic, it was our initial intent to find the most simple explanation for the major facts about aging and mortality (the very origin of aging, the Gompertz law of mortality, the compensation law of mortality, and the late-life mortality deceleration). We were interested in understanding the first principles and fundamental explanations of aging, before trying to create a comprehensive model, which takes into account all the complexities of living organisms. Therefore, in our models we were focused on accumulation of un-repaired damage as the final outcome of the damage-vs-repair process, leading to age-related decrease in systems redundancy (e.g. decrease in numbers of functional cells).

Now, when these intentionally simplified models with minimum number of assumptions gave us some general understanding of the nature of aging process and mortality laws, the way is opened to build upon them a more detailed and complex model of aging. This work is opened to everyone who can find a protected time to do it.

Another interesting feature of biological systems is that they are formed in evolution during a severe struggle for survival, and biological arms race with numerous infections and predators. Therefore they have many potentially harmful defense mechanisms, which may be useful for short-term survival in hostile wild environment, but not conductive for longevity in a protected environment (like the inflammation response).

So the analogy between living organisms and man-made machines is more appropriate for a man-made military machines, overloaded by weaponry and ammunition at the expense of their durability. Such machines could last much longer in protected environment if many dangerous fighting devices are removed from them.

The same is true for living organisms -- loss of some functions through introduced mutations or other interventions often leads to increased species longevity in a protected environment. Sometimes this observation is interpreted as a proof that aging is a programmed process, while in fact it simply means that organisms were selected by Nature for survival in the wild hostile environment, rather than for longevity in protected laboratory conditions.


References

1. Gavrilov, L.A. A mathematical model of the aging of animals. Proc. Acad. Sci. USSR [Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR], 1978, 238(2): 490-492. English translation by Plenum Publ Corp: pp.53-55. PMID 624242

2. Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S., Yaguzhinsky, L.S. The main regularities of animal aging and death viewed in terms of reliability theory. J. General Biology [Zhurnal Obschey Biologii], 1978, 39(5): 734-742. PMID 716614

3. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity. In: Masoro E.J. & Austad S.N.. (eds.): Handbook of the Biology of Aging, Sixth Edition. Academic Press. San Diego, CA, USA, 2006, 3-42. ISBN 0-12-088387-2

4. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. Models of Systems Failure in Aging. In: P Michael Conn (Editor): Handbook of Models for Human Aging, Burlington, MA : Elsevier Academic Press, 2006. 45-68. ISBN 0-12-369391-8.

5. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. Why We Fall Apart. Engineering's Reliability Theory Explains Human Aging. IEEE Spectrum, 2004, 41(9): 30-35.

6. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. The Reliability-Engineering Approach to the Problem of Biological Aging. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2004, 1019: 509-512. PMID 15247076

7. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The quest for a general theory of aging and longevity. Science's SAGE KE (Science of Aging Knowledge Environment) for 16 July 2003; Vol. 2003, No. 28, 1-10. http://sageke.sciencemag.org , PMID 12867663

8. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The reliability theory of aging and longevity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2001, 213(4): 527-545. PMID 11742523

9. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S (1991), The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Harwood Academic Publisher, ISBN 3-7186-4983-7

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Key words:
Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity, Rejuvenation Research, Reliability Theory of Aging, Interview, Reliability Theory, , Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova, ageing, aging, gerontology, longevity, repair, mortality laws, the origin of aging, the Gompertz law of mortality, the compensation law of mortality, the late-life mortality deceleration


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New Interview on Aging and Longevity Studies

See also:
-- 'Books Forum' blog
-- 'Health Studies' blog


Greetings,

This is to invite you to comment here on new interview on aging and longevity studies, published recently by the 'Rejuvenation Research' journal:

Rejuvenation Research, 2009, 12(5): 371-374.
http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/rej.2009.0979
and:
http://health-studies.org/pdf/Interview-RR-2009.pdf

Any comments and suggestions are welcome!

Please feel free to post your comments and suggestions below by clicking here.

-- Leonid Gavrilov

---------------------------------
-- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D. , GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
Our books: http://longevity-science.org/Books.html

P.S.:
Also, here are some excerpts from this published interview (original non-edited text):

1. How, in general, can demographers contribute to the effort to develop medical treatments to combat aging?

There are several ways how human population studies could be very useful for efforts to extend healthy life span.

First, there is an area of biodemography - a science, which integrates biological knowledge with demographic approaches in attempt to understand the dynamics of vital events in human populations, including mortality and longevity [1-4]. Looking back at the history of science we can see that such important health findings as the discovery of long-term harmful effects of smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol levels and hyperglycemia all came from statistical (epidemiological) studies on human populations. These significant findings from population studies served as a guide and justification for subsequent development of specific medical treatments and health policies already saving many human lives now.

Looking forward at the future of biodemographic studies, we anticipate 'unraveling the secrets of human longevity' -- the discovery of determinants for exceptional human survival, which allow some individuals to delay dramatically many diseases of aging, and to live a remarkably healthy long life (sometimes beyond 100 years). When we find out why some people are so resilient to aging, these findings could serve as a guide and justification for development of new medical treatments and health policies to combat aging. To make this happen we developed a new research project 'Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity', which was recently awarded a grant from the U.S. National Institute on Aging, NIA. Information about the progress of this research project is continually updated at our scientific website 'Unraveling the secrets of human longevity' ( http://longevity-science.org/ ), and it is opened for comments and public discussion at our blog 'Longevity Science' ( http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/ ). Some preliminary findings on this topic are already published [5-7].

Second, there is an area of traditional demography, which has tools to make demographic projections for different scenarios of life extension. This is an important issue, because a common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario were published so far. What would happen with population numbers if aging-related deaths are significantly postponed or even eliminated? Is it possible to have a sustainable population dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging society? These are important questions, which could be answered through traditional demographic studies.

Recently we made a new study, which explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. The results of this study supported by the Methuselah and SENS foundations were presented at the SENS4 conference in Cambridge, UK, this September, and are expected to be published [8]. In brief, we found that defeating aging, the joy of parenting and sustainable population size are not mutually exclusive. This is an important point, because it can change the current public perception that life-extension necessarily leads to overpopulation. Amazingly, when we were returning back to the USA from the SENS4 conference in England, the passport control officer asked us exactly the same question about overpopulation during the interview about the purpose of our international travel! This example indicates how deep is the penetration of overpopulation scare in the fabrics of modern society, and hence how important are the demographic studies on this topic.

References

1. Curtsinger JW, Gavrilova NS, Gavrilov LA. Biodemography of Aging and Age-Specific Mortality in Drosophila melanogaster. In: Masoro E.J. & Austad S.N.. (eds.): Handbook of the Biology of Aging, Sixth Edition. Academic Press. San Diego, CA, USA, 2006, 261-288.

2. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S., Olshansky S.J., Carnes B.A. Genealogical data and biodemography of human longevity. Social Biology, 2002, 49(3-4): 160-173.

3. Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Biodemographic study of familial determinants of human longevity. Population: An English Selection, 2001, 13(1): 197-222.

4. Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Data resources for biodemographic studies on familial clustering of human longevity. Demographic Research [Online], 1999, vol.1(4): 1-48. Available: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol1/4/

5. Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. Can exceptional longevity be predicted? Contingencies [Journal of the American Academy of Actuaries], 2008, July/August issue, pp. 82-88.

6. Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. Physical and Socioeconomic Characteristics at Young Age as Predictors of Survival to 100: A Study of a New Historical Data Resource (U.S. WWI Draft Cards). Living to 100 and Beyond: Survival at Advanced Ages [online monograph]. The Society of Actuaries, 2008, 23 pages.

7. Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity: Using Computerized Genealogies and Internet Resources for Human Longevity Studies. North American Actuarial Journal, 2007, 11(1): 49-67.

8. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging. [Meeting Abstract]. Rejuvenation Research, 2009, 12( Suppl. 1): 29-30.

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Key words:
Rejuvenation Research, Interview, Overpopulation, Reliability Theory, Predictors of Exceptional Longevity, Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova, ageing, aging, gerontology, longevity, centenarians, parental age


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Upcoming Meeting on Life-Extension (SENS) in England, September 2009

See also:
-- 'Books Forum' blog
-- 'Health Studies' blog


Dear All:

Here is an interesting announcement I have got recently about the upcoming meeting on life-extension (SENS) in Cambridge, England, September 3-7, 2009:

My apologies if you receive this email more than once. Please forward it to any colleagues who you feel may be interested.

I am writing to notify you that registration and abstract submission are now open for the fourth Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) conference, to be held at Queens' College, Cambridge, England on September 3rd-7th 2009. The early registration and abstract submission deadlines are both June 15th. All details, including forms for abstract submission and online registration, are at the conference website:

http://www.mfoundation.org/sens4

The preliminary program already has 35 confirmed speakers, all of them world leaders in their field. As for previous SENS conferences, the emphasis of this meeting is on "applied gerontology" - the design and implementation of biomedical interventions that may, jointly, constitute a comprehensive panel of rejuvenation therapies, sufficient to restore middle-aged or older laboratory animals (and, in due course, humans) to a youthful degree of physiological robustness. The list of sessions and confirmed speakers is as follows:

Making metabolism less harmful:
Vladimir Skulachev, Holly Brown-Borg, Stephen Spindler, Stephen Vatner

Spontaneous regeneration:
Brandon Reines, Jonathan Tilly, Alexandra Stolzing

Eliminating recalcitrant intracellular molecules:
William Sly, Ana Maria Cuervo, John Schloendorn, Claude Wischik, Martin Hetzer

Rejuvenating extracellular material:
Nik Nikitin, Mark Pepys, Sudhir Paul, Mark Noble, Kendall Houk

Novel anti-cancer approaches:
Paul Hallenbeck, Adela Ben-Yakar, Vera Gorbunova, Maria Blasco, David Keefe

Rejuvenating the immune system:
Janko Nikolich-Zugich, Anne de Groot

ES-like cells and cell therapy:
Justin Ichida, Ilham Abuljadayel, Thomas Zwaka, Daniel Kraft, John Sladek, Dan Gazit

Tissue engineering:
Augustinus Bader, Gabor Forgacs

The defeat of aging and its consequences:
Philip Moriarty, Tanya Jones, Leonid Gavrilov

In addition, there will be at least a dozen short talks selected from submitted abstracts, as well as poster sessions each evening. Authors of short talks and posters will, like the invited speakers, be invited to submit a paper summarising their presentation for the proceedings volume, which will be published in the high-impact journal Rejuvenation Research early in 2010.

Please note that registration fees are fully inclusive of accommodation and all meals. Those not requiring accommodation, and journalists wishing to obtain free press passes (not including accommodation) are asked to contact me by email (aubrey@sens.org).

I hope to welcome you to Cambridge in September!

Cheers, Aubrey

Aubrey de Grey
Organiser, SENS4
Chairman and Chief Science Officer, Methuselah Foundation
Editor-in-Chief, Rejuvenation Research

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Key words:
SENS, Life-Extension, Aubrey de Grey, rejuvenation research, Leonid Gavrilov, Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence, anti-ageing, anti-aging, ageing, aging, longevity


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New Attack on SENS Life-Extension Project and Aubrey de Grey

Greetings,

Here is a new turn in hot scientific debates over the SENS Life-Extension Project, and Dr. Aubrey de Grey activities in rejuvenation research:

Recently a new chapter came out in a book published by the Springer publisher:

Annual Review of Gerontology and Geriatrics:
Biopsychosocial Approaches to Longevity
by Leonard W. Poon and Thomas T. Perls
http://tinyurl.com/2opjy6
(Hardcover - Dec 12, 2007)


Chapter 3 of this book entitled "The Promise of Human Life Span Extension" and written by Dr. Preston W. Estep III, contains the following section:

"SENS Brings Neo-Lysenkoism to Longevity Research"

Here are some excerpts:

"Agenda-driven pseudoscience like SENS has a clearly stated goal, but wishful thinking and extrascientific considerations, such as political or fundraising power, are placed ahead of and are often incompatible with scientific evidence.

There have been many examples of agenda-driven science, but SENS is strikingly similar to Lysenkoism, a name given to the pseudoscientific misdirection of Soviet Biology lead by Trofim Lysenko." [in Stalin period]

Stay tuned for the response from Aubrey de Grey !

Key words:
New books, SENS, Life-Extension, Aubrey de Grey, rejuvenation research, Springer, Trofim Lysenko, Preston Estep, Neo-Lysenkoism, Leonard Poon,Thomas Perls

Do you have any comments on this topic?
Post them below by clicking here !

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